Ultraviolet Luminescence in Mg0.12Zn0.88O Alloy Films

We investigate the origin of ultraviolet （UV） emission from Mg0.12 Zn0.88 O alloy thin films with a wurtzite structure fabricated on c-plane Al2O3 substrates by plasma assisted molecular beam epitaxy. At room temperature, the absorption edge and UV emission band of the Mg0.12Zn0.88O film shift to high-energy side compared with ZnO films. Temperature dependence of the photoluminescence spectra shows that the UV emission is composed of free exciton and neutral donor bound exciton emissions. Two-step dissociation processes of the UV emission are observed with the increasing temperature. The thermal quenching mechanism is attributed to the dissociation of the free exciton from the neutral donor bound exciton in the low temperature region and the dissociation of free electron and hole from the free exciton in the high temperature region.     

Solid-state Electrochemistry of Gadolinium Hexacyanoferrate Modified Electrode and Electrocatalytic Properties of Gadolinium Hexacyanoferrate

A new electroactive polynuclear inorganic compound of rare earth metal, gadolinium hexacyanoferrate (GdHCF), was prepared and characterized using the techniques of FTIR spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TG), UV-Vis spectrometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), ICP atomic emission spectroscopy, and EDX. The results of ICP atomic emission spectroscopy, EDX, and TGA indicated that the prepared GdHCF sample had a stoichiometry of NaGdFe(CN)₆·12H₂O (when GdHCF was prepared in NaCl solution). The FTIR spectrum of GdHCF showed that there were two types of water molecules in the structure of GdHCF: one was the interstitial water (5 H₂O), which resulted from the association of water due to H-bonding, and the other was water coordinated with Gd (7 H₂O). The results obtained using XPS showed that the oxidation state of Fe and Gd in the GdHCF sample was +2 and +3, respectively. GdHCF was immobilized on the surface of spectroscopically pure graphite (SG) electrode forming the GdHCF/SG electrode, and the solid-state electrochemistry of the resultant electrode was studied using cyclic voltammetry. The cyclic voltammetric results indicated that the GdHCF/SG electrode exhibited a pair of well-defined and stable redox peaks with the formal potential of E^0′=(197±3) mV. The effects of the concentration of the supporting electrolyte on the electrochemical characteristics of GdHCF were studied, and the results showed that the value of E^0′ increased linearly with the activity of the cationic ion of the supporting electrolyte (lga_Na⁺), with a slope of 54.1 mV, which may become a novel method for determining the activity of Na⁺ in solution. Further experimental results indicated that GdHCF had electrocatalytic activities toward the oxidation of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA), and the electrocatalytic current increased linearly with the concentration of DA (or AA) in the range of 1.0–10.0 mmol·L^?1 (for DA) or 0.5–20.0 mmol·L^?1 (for AA).     

Order restricted randomized designs for control versus treatment comparison

We develop a method of randomizing units to treatments that relies on subjective judgement or on possible coarse modeling to produce restrictions on the randomization. The procedure thus fits within the general framework of ranked set sampling. However, instead of selecting a single unit from each set for full measurement, all units within a set are used. The units within a set are assigned to different treatments. Such an assignment translates the positive dependence among units within a set into a reduction in variation of contrasting features of the treatments. A test for treatment versus control comparison, with controlled familywise error rate, is developed along with the associated confidence intervals. The new procedure is shown to be superior to corresponding procedures based on completely randomized or ranked set sample designs. The superiority appears both in asymptotic relative efficiency and in power for finite sample sizes. Importantly, this test does not rely on perfect rankings; rather, the information in the data on the quality of rankings is exploited to maintain the level of the test when rankings are imperfect. The asymptotic relative efficiency of the test is not affected by estimation of the quality of rankings, and the finite sample performance is only mildly affected.     

电子束驱动的回旋激射不稳定性

对弱相对论性电子束驱动的回旋激射(maser)不稳定性的一般理论作了详细讨论.对在获得增长率实用表达式过程中若干解析表达式的推导与细节做了仔细的补充讨论和说明，还增加了增长率的近似表达式，并由此得到了回旋激射不稳定性主要特征的解析分析以及与精确计算的比较，使整个理论有一个完整的描述.侧重解析讨论，也提供了部分一般性的数值计算结果. 关键词： 回旋激射不稳定性 弱相对论性电子束 增长率     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php