Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Recursive partition and amalgamation with the exponential family: Theory and applications

The theory of tree-growing (RECPAM approach) is developed for outcome variables which are distributed as the canonical exponential family. The general RECPAM approach (consisting of three steps: recursive partition, pruning and amalgamation), is reviewed. This is seen as constructing a partition with maximal information content about a parameter to be predicted, followed by simplification by the elimination of ‘negligible’ information. The measure of information is defined for an exponential family outcome as a deviance difference, and appropriate modifications of pruning and amalgamation rules are discussed. It is further shown how the proposed approach makes it possible to develop tree-growing for situations usually treated by generalized linear models (GLIM). In particular, Poisson and logistic regression can be tree-structured. Moreover, censored survival data can be treated, as in GLIM, by observing a formal equivalence of the likelihood under random censoring and an appropriate Poisson model. Three examples are given of application to Poisson, binary and censored survival data.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

On conditions ensuring the highest difference in the association degrees of the equilibrium H and D steams: Clustering and isotope enrichment

A search for conditions leading to the highest possible difference between equilibrium association (clustering) degree in the H and D steam has been carried out and related optimal steam pressures evaluated. The difference decreases with increasing temperature but still is a few per cent at moderate temperatures.     

关于(?)-拟微分核的连续性

Supposa that f(x) is a quasidifferentiable function, defined on S(?)R~n where S is an open set, with a -equivalent bounded quasidifferential subfam ily. Lenma I     

识别过渡金属离子的1,8-萘二甲酰亚胺多胺衍生物荧光传感器的研究

设计合成了用以检测过渡金属离子的荧光化学敏感器体系,它们是由1,8-萘二酰亚胺为荧光团,多胺衍生物为金属离子受体组成．在室温下对其光物理性质的研究中发现,在没有加入过渡金属离子时,由于体系内存在有效的光诱导电子转移过程使得荧光团的荧光被淬灭．加入过渡金属离子后,金属离子受体中的氮原子和过渡金属离子之间的配位作用阻断了光诱导电子转移过程,体系的荧光增强．不同的金属离子受体表现出了和过渡金属离子不同的配位识别能力,并且通过荧光的变化传递出受体-金属离子作用的信息．     

Structural and thermodynamic properties of AlB2 compound

We employ a first-principles plane wave method with the relativistic analytic pseudopotential of Hartwigsen, Goedecker and Hutter (HGH) scheme in the frame of DFT to calculate the equilibrium lattice parameters and the thermodynamic properties of AlB₂ compound with hcp structure. The obtained lattice parameters are in good agreement with the available experimental data and those calculated by others. Through the quasi-harmonic Debye model, obtained successfully are the dependences of the normalized lattice parameters a/a₀ and c/c₀ on pressure P, the normalized primitive cell volume V/V₀ on pressure P, the variation of the thermal expansion α with pressure P and temperature T, as well as the Debye temperature \Theta_D and the heat capacity C_V on pressure P and temperature T.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.