Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Program explanations and causal relevance

Frank Jackson and Philip Pettit have defended a non-reductive account of causal relevance known as the ‘program explanation account’. Allegedly, irreducible mental properties can be causally relevant in virtue of figuring in non-redundant program explanations which convey information not conveyed by explanations in terms of the physical properties that actually do the ‘causal work’. I argue that none of the possible ways to spell out the intuitively plausible idea of a program explanation serves its purpose, viz., defends non-reductive physicalism against Jaegwon Kim’s Causal Exclusion Argument according to which non-reductive physicalism is committed to epiphenomenalism because irreducible mental properties are ‘screened off’ from causal relevance by their physical realizers. Jackson and Pettit’s most promising explication of a program explanation appeals to the idea of invariance of effect under variation of realization, but I show that invariance of effect under variation of realization is neither necessary nor sufficient for causal relevance.     

Crystallographic report: Bis{[diacetyl‐bis(2,6‐isopropylphenylimine)]nickel(I)(µ‐chloro)}

The first α‐diimine nickel(I) complex having a chloro bridge is reported. The centrosymmetric dinuclear structure of {[ArN?C(Me)C(Me)?NAr]NiCl}₂[Ar?2,6?C₆H₃(i‐Pr)₂] features two chelating α‐diimine ligands and two bridged chlorine atoms, so that a distorted tetrahedral N₂Cl₂ coordination geometry for nickel results. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Order restricted randomized designs for control versus treatment comparison

We develop a method of randomizing units to treatments that relies on subjective judgement or on possible coarse modeling to produce restrictions on the randomization. The procedure thus fits within the general framework of ranked set sampling. However, instead of selecting a single unit from each set for full measurement, all units within a set are used. The units within a set are assigned to different treatments. Such an assignment translates the positive dependence among units within a set into a reduction in variation of contrasting features of the treatments. A test for treatment versus control comparison, with controlled familywise error rate, is developed along with the associated confidence intervals. The new procedure is shown to be superior to corresponding procedures based on completely randomized or ranked set sample designs. The superiority appears both in asymptotic relative efficiency and in power for finite sample sizes. Importantly, this test does not rely on perfect rankings; rather, the information in the data on the quality of rankings is exploited to maintain the level of the test when rankings are imperfect. The asymptotic relative efficiency of the test is not affected by estimation of the quality of rankings, and the finite sample performance is only mildly affected.     

安培

安培(1775-1836)，法国物理学家，对数学和化学也有贡献．1775年1月22日生于里昂一个富商家庭．少年时就显出数学才能．他的父亲信奉卢梭的教育思想，供给他大量图书，令其走自学道路，于是他博览群书，吸取营养．卢梭关于植物学的著作燃起他对科学的热情，1802年他在布尔让——布雷斯中央学校任物理学和化学教授；1814年被选为帝国学院教学部成员；1819年主持巴黎大学哲学讲座；1824年担任法兰西学院实验物理学教授．1836年6月10日在巡视法国各大学途经马赛时逝世．终年61岁．     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

A New Cycloartane from Sphaerophysa salsula

A novel cycloartane,named sphaerophysone A,9,19-cycloart-7β,24β,25-triol-1-en-3-one,was isolated from the ethanol extract of Sphaerophysa salsula DC.The structure was elucidated on the basis of spectral evidences and confirmed by X-ray analysis,the stereochemistry of the compound was also defined by X-ray analysis.