Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

二氧化钒薄膜的低温制备及其性能研究

针对VO₂薄膜在微测辐射热计上的应用，采用射频反应溅射法，在室温下制备氧化钒薄膜；研究了氧分压对薄膜沉积速率、电学性质及成分的影响.通过调节氧分压，先获得成分接近VO₂的非晶化薄膜，再在400℃空气中氧化退火，便可制得高电阻温度系数，低电阻率的VO₂薄膜，电阻温度系数约为-4%/℃，薄膜方块电阻为R_□为100—300kΩ；薄膜在室温下沉积，400℃下退火的制备方法与微机电加工(micro electromechanic 关键词： 二氧化钒 电阻温度系数 氧分压 射频反应溅射法     

Structural and thermodynamic properties of AlB2 compound

We employ a first-principles plane wave method with the relativistic analytic pseudopotential of Hartwigsen, Goedecker and Hutter (HGH) scheme in the frame of DFT to calculate the equilibrium lattice parameters and the thermodynamic properties of AlB₂ compound with hcp structure. The obtained lattice parameters are in good agreement with the available experimental data and those calculated by others. Through the quasi-harmonic Debye model, obtained successfully are the dependences of the normalized lattice parameters a/a₀ and c/c₀ on pressure P, the normalized primitive cell volume V/V₀ on pressure P, the variation of the thermal expansion α with pressure P and temperature T, as well as the Debye temperature \Theta_D and the heat capacity C_V on pressure P and temperature T.     

High index of refraction via quantum interference in a three-level system of Er^3＋-doped yttrium aluminium garnet crystal

A simple three-level system is proposed to produce high index of refraction with zero absorption in an Er^3＋-doped yttrium aluminium garnet （YAG） crystal, which is achieved for a probe field between the excited state 4I13/2 and ground state 4I15/2 by adjusting a strong coherent driving field between the upper excited state 4I11/2 and 4I15/2. It is found that the changes of the frequency of the coherent driving field and the concentration of Er^3＋ ions in the YAG crystal can maximize the index of refraction accompanied by vanishing absorption. This result could be useful for the dispersion compensation in fibre communication, laser particle acceleration, high precision magnetometry and so on.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

木质素在塑料中的应用

总结了国内外近10年来木质素在塑料中的应用进展，重点对木质素在PVC、PP、PE、PF、PU等5个方面的研究成果进行了系统阐述，并对该技术的发展方向进行了分析预测。     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

烟气中Hg的氧化机理的研究

本文对Ｈｇ与Ｃｌ２在烟气中的氧化反应进行了热力平衡计算和动力学计算。平衡计算的结果表明有ＣＩ元索存在时Ｈｇ的氧化率为１００％，而在相同的条件下动力学计算纺果为Ｈｇ的氧化率在２０％～８０％之间变化，与实验结果吻合。实际的氧化反应是一种超平衡状态，不能达到理想的平衡状态。因此应采用动力学与热力平衡分析相结合的方法研究Ｈｇ在烟气中的反应机理。同时，计算结果显示Ｃｌ含量对Ｈｇ的氧化率的影响很大．