When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

级数小于1的亚纯函数的Borel例外值

证明了当超越亚纯函数的级小于1时，其Norel例外值最多只有一个．由于存在任何级的整函数，因此一个例外值总可达到，故所得结果不能再改进。     

A New Cycloartane from Sphaerophysa salsula

A novel cycloartane,named sphaerophysone A,9,19-cycloart-7β,24β,25-triol-1-en-3-one,was isolated from the ethanol extract of Sphaerophysa salsula DC.The structure was elucidated on the basis of spectral evidences and confirmed by X-ray analysis,the stereochemistry of the compound was also defined by X-ray analysis.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

3,7-二硝基亚氨基-2,4-二氮杂双环[3,3,0]辛烷的放热分解反应动力学

在程序升温条件下 ,用DSC研究了标题化合物的放热分解反应动力学 .用线性最小二乘法、迭代法以及二分法与最小二乘法相结合的方法 ,以积分方程、微分方程和放热速率方程拟合DSC数据 .在逻辑选择建立了微分和积分机理函数的最可几一般表达式后 ,用放热速率方程得到相应的表观活化能 (Ea)、指前因子 (A)和反应级数 (n)的值 .结果表明 :该反应的微分形式的经验动力学模式函数、Ea 和A值分别为 (1-α) 0 .44、2 30 .4kJ/mol和 10 18.16s-1.借助加热速率和所得动力学参数值 ,提出了标题化合物放热分解反应的动力学方程 .该化合物的热爆炸临界温度为 30 2 .6℃ .上述动力学参数对分析、评价标题化合物的稳定性和热变化规律十分有用 .     

Crystallographic report: catena‐Aqua(2,2′‐bipyrimidine)lithium(I) perchlorate

A lithium(I) coordination polymer has been formed from LiClO₄ and the 2,2′‐bipyrimidine (bpym) ligand in which each square pyramidal lithium(I) atom is coordinated in the basal plane by four nitrogen donor atoms derived from two bpym ligands and one water molecule at the apical position. These are connected into a layer structure via hydrogen‐bonding interactions involving the perchlorate anions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Synthesis and characterization of new bis(1-aryliminomethylenylnaphthalen-2-oxy)nickel complexes and their catalytic behavior for vinyl polymerization of norbornene

The synthesized 1-aryliminomethylenylnaphthalen-2-ol derivatives reacted with nickel chloride to form bis(1-aryliminomethylenylnaphthalen-2-oxy)nickel complexes. All resultant compounds were structurally characterized by elemental analyses, IR and H NMR, and the structures of the formed complexes were elucidated by X-ray crystal structure analysis. The complexes show high catalytic activities for the vinyl polymerization of norbornene in the presence of methylaluminoxane. The catalytic activity variations have been followed by gas chromatography through monitoring the conversion of norbornene.     

基因组重排问题的一个近似算法

分子生物学中基因无方向的反向基因组重排问题在数学上已被证明是一个NP困难问题．基于断点图的概念，给出一个时间复杂性为O(max{b^(π)，nb(π)})，空间复杂性为0(n)的求其近似最优解的算法．其中n为基因组中基因个数，π=(π1,π2，…，πn)表示n个基因的一种排列，b(π)表示排列π中的断点数．数据实验的结果表明，该近似算法可以求得较好的结果．