Assessing Earthquake Forecast Performance Based on b Value in Yunnan Province,China

Many studies have shown that b values tend to decrease prior to large earthquakes. To evaluate the forecast information in b value variations, we conduct a systematic assessment in Yunnan Province, China, where the seismicity is intense and moderate–large earthquakes occur frequently. The catalog in the past two decades is divided into four time periods (January 2000–December 2004, January 2005–December 2009, January 2010–December 2014, and January 2015–December 2019). The spatial b values are calculated for each 5-year span and then are used to forecast moderate-large earthquakes (M ≥ 5.0) in the subsequent period. As the fault systems in Yunnan Province are complex, to avoid possible biases in b value computation caused by different faulting regimes when using the grid search, the hierarchical space–time point-process models (HIST-PPM) proposed by Ogata are utilized to estimate spatial b values in this study. The forecast performance is tested by Molchan error diagram (MED) and the efficiency is quantified by probability gain (PG) and probability difference (PD). It is found that moderate–large earthquakes are more likely to occur in low b regions. The MED analysis shows that there is considerable precursory information in spatial b values and the forecast efficiency increases with magnitude in the Yunnan Province. These results suggest that the b value might be useful in middle- and long-term earthquake forecasts in the study area.     

Status Set Sequential Pattern Mining Considering Time Windows and Periodic Analysis of Patterns

The traditional sequential pattern mining method is carried out considering the whole time period and often ignores the sequential patterns that only occur in local time windows, as well as possible periodicity. Therefore, in order to overcome the limitations of traditional methods, this paper proposes status set sequential pattern mining with time windows (SSPMTW). In contrast to traditional methods, the item status is considered, and time windows, minimum confidence, minimum coverage, minimum factor set ratios and other constraints are added to mine more valuable rules in local time windows. The periodicity of these rules is also analyzed. According to the proposed method, this paper improves the Apriori algorithm, proposes the TW-Apriori algorithm, and explains the basic idea of the algorithm. Then, the feasibility, validity and efficiency of the proposed method and algorithm are verified by small-scale and large-scale examples. In a large-scale numerical example solution, the influence of various constraints on the mining results is analyzed. Finally, the solution results of SSPM and SSPMTW are compared and analyzed, and it is suggested that SSPMTW can excavate the laws existing in local time windows and analyze the periodicity of the laws, which solves the problem of SSPM ignoring the laws existing in local time windows and overcomes the limitations of traditional sequential pattern mining algorithms. In addition, the rules mined by SSPMTW reduce the entropy of the system.     

GIS Partial Discharge Pattern Recognition Based on a Novel Convolutional Neural Networks and Long Short-Term Memory

Distinguishing the types of partial discharge (PD) caused by different insulation defects in gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) is a great challenge in the power industry, and improving the recognition accuracy of the relevant models is one of the key problems. In this paper, a convolutional neural network and long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) model is proposed, which can effectively extract and utilize the spatiotemporal characteristics of PD input signals. First, the spatial characteristics of higher-level PD signals can be obtained through the CNN network, but because CNN is a deep feedforward neural network, it does not have the ability to process time-series data. The PD voltage signal is related to the time dimension, so LSTM saves and analyzes the previous voltage signal information, realizes the modeling of the time dependence of the data, and improves the accuracy of the PD signal pattern recognition. Finally, the pattern recognition results based on CNN-LSTM are given and compared with those based on other traditional analysis methods. The results show that the pattern recognition rate of this method is the highest, with an average of 97.9%, and its overall accuracy is better than that of other traditional analysis methods. The CNN-LSTM model provides a reliable reference for GIS PD diagnosis.     

Discrimination of Patients with Varying Degrees of Coronary Artery Stenosis by ECG and PCG Signals Based on Entropy

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of cardiovascular death. This study aimed to propose an effective method for mining cardiac mechano-electric coupling information and to evaluate its ability to distinguish patients with varying degrees of coronary artery stenosis (VDCAS). Five minutes of electrocardiogram and phonocardiogram signals was collected synchronously from 191 VDCAS patients to construct heartbeat interval (RRI)–systolic time interval (STI), RRI–diastolic time interval (DTI), HR-corrected QT interval (QTcI)–STI, QTcI–DTI, Tpeak–Tend interval (TpeI)–STI, TpeI–DTI, Tpe/QT interval (Tpe/QTI)–STI, and Tpe/QTI–DTI series. Then, the cross sample entropy (XSampEn), cross fuzzy entropy (XFuzzyEn), joint distribution entropy (JDistEn), magnitude-squared coherence function, cross power spectral density, and mutual information were applied to evaluate the coupling of the series. Subsequently, support vector machine recursive feature elimination and XGBoost were utilized for feature selection and classification, respectively. Results showed that the joint analysis of XSampEn, XFuzzyEn, and JDistEn had the best ability to distinguish patients with VDCAS. The classification accuracy of severe CHD—mild-to-moderate CHD group, severe CHD—chest pain and normal coronary angiography (CPNCA) group, and mild-to-moderate CHD—CPNCA group were 0.8043, 0.7659, and 0.7500, respectively. The study indicates that the joint analysis of XSampEn, XFuzzyEn, and JDistEn can effectively capture the cardiac mechano-electric coupling information of patients with VDCAS, which can provide valuable information for clinicians to diagnose CHD.     

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin,China

The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins’ water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators’ standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future.     

基于FDTD的时域混合方法及其在天线前门耦合数值模拟中的应用

强电磁脉冲环境下的平台-机载天线一体化耦合计算属于典型多尺度时域电磁计算问题,采用传统的FDTD方法数值模拟时,由于精细结构的存在导致网格量巨大,计算效率低下。介绍了一种将非均匀FDTD方法与细导线FDTD方法以及多网格集总元件FDTD方法相结合的时域混合方法,能够有效降低计算开销,结合并行计算技术,快速计算得到天线端口上耦合产生的瞬态电压和电流响应,并将该方法成功应用于无人机平台-天线一体化前门耦合数值模拟中。     

数字束流位置探测器通道自动增益校准方法的研究与实现

在现有硬件基础上,基于BPM测量准确度的需求,在自制的电子学FPGA芯片内,通过Verilog语言实现了一种数字BPM采样数据增益自动校准的设计。首先介绍了自动增益校准模块的系统总体设计;然后对模块的实现方法做了详细说明,设计并搭建了ADC数据自动增益校准测试平台以验证自动增益较准模块的功能;最后介绍了该设计在BPM通道标定中的应用。实验结果表明,该方法可以实现4通道增益一致,使ADC采样后的数据幅度相同,有效解决了由通道增益不一致引起的测量偏差,以及工程应用中ADC数据幅度校准工作量大且难于操作的问题,将在BPM系统通道自动标定中发挥重要作用。     

BESIII 实验对奇特态 X(3872) 的研究

量子色动力学允许超出夸克模型中重子和介子的奇特态的存在。对奇特态的研究是当前高能物理实验的热门话题之一。X(3872)是第一个被实验上观测到的奇特态候选者。实验和理论上对X(3872)的研究从未间断,这使得X(3872)成为了解最好的奇特态。运行在北京正负电子对撞机(BEPCII)上的北京谱仪(BESIII)实验积累了大量的质心能量从3.87 到 4.70 GeV的正负电子对撞数据样本。利用这些数据样本,得到了很多关于X(3872)的实验结果。本文将回顾BESIII上关于X(3872)所取得一系列成果及最新实验进展。对X(3872)等奇特态的研究,将有利于我们对自然界的基本相互作用的理解,也将促进标准模型理论的完善。     

Fission fragment mass yields of Th to Rf even-even nuclei

Fission properties of the actinide nuclei are deduced from theoretical analysis. We investigate potential energy surfaces and fission barriers and predict the fission fragment mass yields of actinide isotopes. The results are compared with experimental data where available. The calculations were performed in the macroscopic-microscopic approximation with the Lublin-Strasbourg Drop (LSD) for the macroscopic part, and the microscopic energy corrections were evaluated in the Yukawa-folded potential. The Fourier nuclear shape parametrization is used to describe the nuclear shape, including the non-axial degree of freedom. The fission fragment mass yields of the nuclei considered are evaluated within a 3D collective model using the Born-Oppenheimer approximation.