Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Solid-state Electrochemistry of Gadolinium Hexacyanoferrate Modified Electrode and Electrocatalytic Properties of Gadolinium Hexacyanoferrate

A new electroactive polynuclear inorganic compound of rare earth metal, gadolinium hexacyanoferrate (GdHCF), was prepared and characterized using the techniques of FTIR spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TG), UV-Vis spectrometry, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), ICP atomic emission spectroscopy, and EDX. The results of ICP atomic emission spectroscopy, EDX, and TGA indicated that the prepared GdHCF sample had a stoichiometry of NaGdFe(CN)₆·12H₂O (when GdHCF was prepared in NaCl solution). The FTIR spectrum of GdHCF showed that there were two types of water molecules in the structure of GdHCF: one was the interstitial water (5 H₂O), which resulted from the association of water due to H-bonding, and the other was water coordinated with Gd (7 H₂O). The results obtained using XPS showed that the oxidation state of Fe and Gd in the GdHCF sample was +2 and +3, respectively. GdHCF was immobilized on the surface of spectroscopically pure graphite (SG) electrode forming the GdHCF/SG electrode, and the solid-state electrochemistry of the resultant electrode was studied using cyclic voltammetry. The cyclic voltammetric results indicated that the GdHCF/SG electrode exhibited a pair of well-defined and stable redox peaks with the formal potential of E^0′=(197±3) mV. The effects of the concentration of the supporting electrolyte on the electrochemical characteristics of GdHCF were studied, and the results showed that the value of E^0′ increased linearly with the activity of the cationic ion of the supporting electrolyte (lga_Na⁺), with a slope of 54.1 mV, which may become a novel method for determining the activity of Na⁺ in solution. Further experimental results indicated that GdHCF had electrocatalytic activities toward the oxidation of dopamine (DA) and ascorbic acid (AA), and the electrocatalytic current increased linearly with the concentration of DA (or AA) in the range of 1.0–10.0 mmol·L^?1 (for DA) or 0.5–20.0 mmol·L^?1 (for AA).     

Construction algorithms for polynomial lattice rules for multivariate integration

We introduce a new construction algorithm for digital nets for integration in certain weighted tensor product Hilbert spaces. The first weighted Hilbert space we consider is based on Walsh functions. Dick and Pillichshammer calculated the worst-case error for integration using digital nets for this space. Here we extend this result to a special construction method for digital nets based on polynomials over finite fields. This result allows us to find polynomials which yield a small worst-case error by computer search. We prove an upper bound on the worst-case error for digital nets obtained by such a search algorithm which shows that the convergence rate is best possible and that strong tractability holds under some condition on the weights.

We extend the results for the weighted Hilbert space based on Walsh functions to weighted Sobolev spaces. In this case we use randomly digitally shifted digital nets. The construction principle is the same as before, only the worst-case error is slightly different. Again digital nets obtained from our search algorithm yield a worst-case error achieving the optimal rate of convergence and as before strong tractability holds under some condition on the weights. These results show that such a construction of digital nets yields the until now best known results of this kind and that our construction methods are comparable to the construction methods known for lattice rules.

We conclude the article with numerical results comparing the expected worst-case error for randomly digitally shifted digital nets with those for randomly shifted lattice rules.

     

Thermal diffusion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains

We study the motion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains in the presence of dissipation and thermal fluctuations. We consider the continuum limit of the discrete system and apply an adiabatic perturbation theory which yields a system of stochastic integro-differential equations for the collective variables of the ansatz for the perturbed envelope soliton. We derive the Fokker-Planck equation of this system and search for a statistically equivalent system of Langevin equations, which shares the same Fokker-Planck equation. We undertake an analytical analysis of the Langevin system and derive an expression for the variance of the soliton position Var[x _s ] which predicts a stronger than linear time dependence of Var[x _s ] (superdiffusion). We compare these results with simulations for the discrete system and find they agree well. We refer to recent studies where the diffusion of pulse solitons were found to exhibit a superdiffusive behaviour on longer time scales.Received: 28 June 2004, Published online: 26 November 2004PACS: 05.10.Gg Stochastic analysis methods - 05.45.Yv Solitons - 05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion - 05.50. + q Lattice theory and statistics     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.