When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Investigating buyer and seller strategies in online auctions

The annual turnover of online auctions is already in tens of billions of dollars and this amount is predicted to grow substantially over the next few years. Hence, it is important to know how buyers and sellers can influence their chances of success. Therefore, data were collected from eBay auctions for three different categories of collectible items, namely those with a published guide price, those with a rough guide price and those having no easily obtainable guide price. The options available to buyers and sellers of items were then analysed. It was found that it was hard for the seller to influence an item's achieved price significantly, apart from items with no guide price where the starting price could have an effect. Most bidders bid close to the current value and so there were insufficient data to determine the consequences of timing on the placing of high bids. For low bids, delaying a bid was found to improve significantly the chances of winning for one of the data sets.     

Cost–benefit modelling for reliability growth

Decisions during the reliability growth development process of engineering equipment involve trade-offs between cost and risk. However slight, there exists a chance an item of equipment will not function as planned during its specified life. Consequently the producer can incur a financial penalty. To date, reliability growth research has focussed on the development of models to estimate the rate of failure from test data. Such models are used to support decisions about the effectiveness of options to improve reliability. The extension of reliability growth models to incorporate financial costs associated with ‘unreliability’ is much neglected. In this paper, we extend a Bayesian reliability growth model to include cost analysis. The rationale of the stochastic process underpinning the growth model and the cost structures are described. The ways in which this model can be used to support cost–benefit analysis during product development are discussed and illustrated through a simple case.     

A nonlinear programming algorithm for solving semidefinite programs via low-rank factorization

 In this paper, we present a nonlinear programming algorithm for solving semidefinite programs (SDPs) in standard form. The algorithm's distinguishing feature is a change of variables that replaces the symmetric, positive semidefinite variable X of the SDP with a rectangular variable R according to the factorization X=RR ^T . The rank of the factorization, i.e., the number of columns of R, is chosen minimally so as to enhance computational speed while maintaining equivalence with the SDP. Fundamental results concerning the convergence of the algorithm are derived, and encouraging computational results on some large-scale test problems are also presented. Received: March 22, 2001 / Accepted: August 30, 2002 Published online: December 9, 2002 Key Words. semidefinite programming – low-rank factorization – nonlinear programming – augmented Lagrangian – limited memory BFGS This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grants CCR-9902010, INT-9910084, CCR-0203426 and CCR-0203113     

On characterization of Poisson and Jacobi structures

We characterize Poisson and Jacobi structures by means of complete lifts of the corresponding tensors: the lifts have to be related to canonical structures by morphisms of corresponding vector bundles. Similar results hold for generalized Poisson and Jacobi structures (canonical structures) associated with Lie algebroids and Jacobi algebroids.     

Lower bounds for densities of uniformly elliptic random variables on Wiener space

 In this article, we generalize the lower bound estimates for uniformly elliptic diffusion processes obtained by Kusuoka and Stroock. We define the concept of uniform elliptic random variable on Wiener space and show that with this definition one can prove a lower bound estimate of Gaussian type for its density. We apply our results to the case of the stochastic heat equation under the hypothesis of unifom ellipticity of the diffusion coefficient. Received: 6 November 2001 / Revised version: 27 February 2003 / Published online: 12 May 2003 Key words or phrases: Malliavin Calculus – Density estimates – Aronson estimates     

On quartics with three-divisible sets of cusps

 We study the geometry and codes of quartic surfaces with many cusps. We apply Gr?bner bases to find examples of various configurations of cusps on quartics. Received: 10 May 2002 / Revised version: 11 November 2002 Published online: 3 March 2003 Permanent address: Institute of Mathematics, Jagiellonian University, ul. Reymonta 4, 30-059 Kraków, Poland. e-mail: rams@mi.uni-erlangen.de, rams@im.uj.edu.pl Research partially supported by the Schwerpunktprogramm ``Global methods in complex geometry' of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, and by EAGER. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 14J25, 14J17