On the Role of Mixed Strategies in Elementary Decision Analysis and Related Decision-Support-System Treatments

We first demonstrate that mixed strategies are relevant in decision analysis for a maximin decision-maker quite apart from any game-theory considerations. This rectifies the apparent misconception that results from MS/OR textbooks which discuss mixed strategies only in the game-theory setting. Next we show an example of an implementable mixed strategy, by which we mean a mixed decision strategy which does not require randomization for its implementation. This application is to portfolio construction.     

Optimal Discrete Approximations for Continuous Outcomes with Applications in Decision and Risk Analysis

In decision and risk analysis, it is common to use discrete probability distributions to approximate uncertain events with continuous outcomes. This paper discusses how these approximations may be selected. A class of approximations based on a modification to Taguchi's work on tolerance analysis is shown to be optimal under assumptions of independent uncertainties with normally distributed outcomes. The approximation procedure is shown to be robust in many other situations and is extremely easy to use in practice. We also show how the approximation may be integrated into the process of subjective probability estimation by a ‘subject-matter expert’.     

Optimal Inventory Policies with Service-Level Constraints

In a practical situation it is often difficult to determine the value of the shortage costs for use in in ventory-control systems. However, in cost-minimization problems including service-level constraints, shortage costs are implicitly prevailing. With the purpose of exploring these relations, a continuous review (Q, r) stock-control system is considered, where the order points and lot sizes are computed simultaneously. Instead of explicitly expressing the shortage cost in the objective function, it is taken into consideration through a service-level constraint. The shadow price of this constraint can in some sense be interpreted as the shortage cost corresponding to the requested service level. By changing the value of the service level, interesting relations between shortage costs and service levels can be viewed for different sets of other inventory parameters. In order to investigate the sensitivity for probabilistic variations in the input data, two different probability distributions are used to describe the lead-time demand.     

微波常压法合成水杨酸酯

在浓硫酸催化下，采用微波常压法由水杨酸分别与正丁醇、异丁醇、正戊醇和异戊醇反应合成相应的水杨酸酯。结果表明：当水杨酸：醇：Ｈ２ＳＯ４＝１：５．５：０．３（摩尔比）时，采用５６０Ｗ微波辐射２２ｍｉｎ，水杨酸酯的产率可达８８．７％￣９６．４％，反应速度至少是常规反应的１４倍。     

兖州高硫煤的加氢热解脱硫及脱硫动力学

在加压热天平上，考察了氢气和氮扬气氛下高硫煤的热解脱硫。利用气相色谱在线分析研究了硫化氢氢气的逸出规律。结果表明，加氢热解比氮气下的热解有着更显著的脱友作用，脱硫率可达９０％以上。而且加氢热解下６５％的脱除硫转化为气相硫化氢，而氮气下热解是有８０％的硫转化为液相。