Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

Cycle and circle tests of balance in gain graphs: Forbidden minors and their groups

We examine two criteria for balance of a gain graph, one based on binary cycles and one on circles. The graphs for which each criterion is valid depend on the set of allowed gain groups. The binary cycle test is invalid, except for forests, if any possible gain group has an element of odd order. Assuming all groups are allowed, or all abelian groups, or merely the cyclic group of order 3, we characterize, both constructively and by forbidden minors, the graphs for which the circle test is valid. It turns out that these three classes of groups have the same set of forbidden minors. The exact reason for the importance of the ternary cyclic group is not clear. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Graph Theory     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

An Analogue of Distributivity for Ungraded Lattices

In this paper, we study lattices that posess both the properties of being extremal (in the sense of Markowsky) and of being left modular (in the sense of Blass and Sagan). We call such lattices trim and show that they posess some additional appealing properties, analogous to those of a distributive lattice. For example, trimness is preserved under taking intervals and suitable sublattices. Trim lattices satisfy a weakened form of modularity. The order complex of a trim lattice is contractible or homotopic to a sphere; the latter holds exactly if the maximum element of the lattice is a join of atoms. Any distributive lattice is trim, but trim lattices need not be graded. The main example of ungraded trim lattices are the Tamari lattices and generalizations of them. We show that the Cambrian lattices in types A and B defined by Reading are trim; we conjecture that all Cambrian lattices are trim.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.