Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

THE QUALITATIVE CONTENT OF RENEWABLE RESOURCE MODELS

This paper analyzes the extent to which standard dynamic renewable resource models possess refutable implications. Both the steady state comparative static and local comparative dynamic properties of the standard model are studied. A unified framework is developed which enables one to analyze the qualitative properties of any standard renewable resource model. This is achieved by explicitly linking the local stability, steady state comparative static, and local comparative dynamic properties of the model.     

Gluon jets from quarkonia

A detailed analysis is made within perturbative QCD of the decays into gluon jets of P-wave and S-wave quarkonia (J^PC = 0⁺⁺, 1⁺⁺, 2⁺⁺, 1^+? and 0^?+, 1^??). For all those states we compute to leading non-trivial order in α_s the conventional fraction f(?, δ) of the jet-like hadronic final states, characterized by the back-to-back cone of half angle δ, in which all but a small fraction ? of the total energy is emitted. To the same order we give also the average values of thrust momenta and spherocity distributions.     

Determination of trace levels of diosmin in a pharmaceutical preparation by adsorptive stripping voltammetry at a glassy carbon electrode.

A systematic study on the electrochemical behavior of diosmin in Britton-Robinson buffer (pH 2.0-10.0) at a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was made. The oxidation process of the drug was found to be quasi-reversible with an adsorption-controlled step. The adsorption stripping response was evaluated with respect to various experimental conditions, such as the pH of the supporting electrolyte, the accumulation potential and the accumulation time. The observed anodic peak current at +0.73 V vs. Ag/AgCl reference electrode increased linearly over two orders of magnitude from 5.0x10(-8) M to 9.0x10(-6) M. A limit of detection down to 3.5x10(-8) M of diosmin at the GCE was achieved with a mean recovery of 97+/-2.1%. Based on the electrochemical data, an open-circuit accumulation step in a stirred sample solution of BR at pH 3.0 was developed. The proposed method was successfully applied to the determination of the drug in pharmaceutical formulations. The results compared favorably with the data obtained via spectrophotometric and HPLC methods.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

Miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate with poly(methyl methacrylate)

The miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate (PC) with poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) has been reexamined using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and optical indications for phase separation on heating, i.e., lower critical solution temperature (LCST) behavior. Various methods have been used to prepare the blends including methylene chloride (CH₂Cl₂) and tetrahydrofuran (THF) solution casting, melt mixing, and precipitation of PC and PMMA simultaneously from THF solution by using the nonsolvents methanol and heptane. It is shown that the resulting phase behavior for PC/PMMA blends is strongly affected by the blend preparation method. However, these blends are miscible over the whole blend composition range (unambiguous single composition-dependent T_g's and LCST behavior) when prepared by precipitation from solution using heptane as the nonsolvent. To the contrary, solution-cast and melt-mixed PC/PMMA blends were all phase separated, which may be attributed to the “solvent” effect and LCST behavior, respectively, not discovered in previous reports. Methanol precipitation does not lead to fully mixed blends, which demonstrates the importance of the choice of nonsolvent when using the precipitation method.     

Nonequilibrium Ionization by Vibrationally Excited Molecules in Supersonic Flows

The results of experimental investigations on thermal nonequilibrium ionization in CO₂: N₂: He mixtures are presented. Measurements of electron density, n_e, in vibrationally excited nitrogen were made in a supersonic flow with different CO₂ contents as well as in a CO₂: N₂: He = 1 : 5 : 4 mixture laser gas. The mixtures were heated in a shock tube and expanded through a supersonic nozzle. Furthermore, supersonic mixing of N₂ and CO₂ + He was used in some experiments. The measured values of n_e in the plenum chamber and in the supersonic nozzle are reported, and the processes responsible for nonequilibrium ionization in a laser-active medium are discussed.     

Rate constants for the gas‐phase reaction of CF3CF2CF2CF2CF2CHF2 with OH radicals at 250–430 K

The rate constants k₁ for the reaction of CF₃CF₂CF₂CF₂CF₂CHF₂ with OH radicals were determined by using both absolute and relative rate methods. The absolute rate constants were measured at 250–430 K using the flash photolysis–laser‐induced fluorescence (FP‐LIF) technique and the laser photolysis–laser‐induced fluorescence (LP‐LIF) technique to monitor the OH radical concentration. The relative rate constants were measured at 253–328 K in an 11.5‐dm³ reaction chamber with either CHF₂Cl or CH₂FCF₃ as a reference compound. OH radicals were produced by UV photolysis of an O₃–H₂O–He mixture at an initial pressure of 200 Torr. Ozone was continuously introduced into the reaction chamber during the UV irradiation. The k₁ (298 K) values determined by the absolute method were (1.69 ± 0.07) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (FP‐LIF method) and (1.72 ± 0.07) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (LP‐LIF method), whereas the K₁ (298 K) values determined by the relative method were (1.87 ± 0.11) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (CHF₂Cl reference) and (2.12 ± 0.11) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (CH₂FCF₃ reference). These data are in agreement with each other within the estimated experimental uncertainties. The Arrhenius rate constant determined from the kinetic data was K₁ = (4.71 ± 0.94) × 10^?13 exp[?(1630 ± 80)/T] cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1. Using kinetic data for the reaction of tropospheric CH₃CCl₃ with OH radicals [k₁ (272 K) = 6.0 × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1, tropospheric lifetime of CH₃CCl₃ = 6.0 years], we estimated the tropospheric lifetime of CF₃CF₂CF₂CF₂CF₂CHF₂ through reaction with OH radicals to be 31 years. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Chem Kinet 36: 26–33, 2004