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11.
Chris Hope 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》2003,54(11):1167-1176
What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points. 相似文献
12.
13.
Dominique Fourdrinier William E. Strawderman 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(4):803-816
We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In
3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988,
On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual
estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized
Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly,
that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax
estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes
estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator
of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss.
Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524. 相似文献
14.
Vinod Kumar Pragya Das R.P. Singh S. Muralithar R.K. Bhowmik 《The European Physical Journal A - Hadrons and Nuclei》2003,17(2):153-157
The fusion evaporation reaction 122Sn(14N, 4n)132La was used to populate the high-spin states of 132La at the beam energy of 60 MeV. A new band consisting of mostly E2 transitions has been discovered. This band has the interesting links to the ground state 2- and the isomeric state 6-. A new transition of energy 351 keV connecting the low-spin states of the positive-parity band based on the πh
11/2 ⊗ νh
11/2 particle configuration, has been found. This has played a very important role in resolving the existing ambiguities and inconsistencies
in the spin assignment of the band head.
Received: 12 August 2002 / Accepted: 18 March 2003 / Published online: 7 May 2003 相似文献
15.
The results of a numerical study are described in which the interactions of a primary shock wave with a secondary diaphragm
in expansion tubes are taken into account. The developing wave pattern in the interacting process of the shock with a secondary
diaphragm are visualized by many kinds of figures (e.g., the time-distance diagrams of the wave phenomena on the axis, the
acoustic impedance contours, and the time histories of the pitot pressure on the axis), and the influences of the shape and
rupture process of the diaphragm on the quality of the test gas are explored. 相似文献
16.
In order to reduce infant mortality in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro it is desired to encourage all mothers-to-be to attend the appropriate health care facilities. A 3-level hierarchical prenatal–neonatal health care system is described together with a basic model for optimising accessibility to facilities. A genetic algorithm to solve the basic model is developed and some numerical experience reported. Extensions to the basic model and planned future research are briefly indicated. 相似文献
17.
Howard Anton and Robert C. Busby, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002. 相似文献
18.
Florin Ambro 《manuscripta mathematica》2003,111(1):43-49
We prove a precise inversion of adjunction formula for the log variety (ℂ
d
+1,X), where X is a non-degenerate hypersurface. As a corollary, the minimal log discrepancies of non-degenerate normal hypersurface singularities
are bounded by dimension.
Received: 17 September 2002 / Revised version: 22 November 2002
Published online: 14 February 2003
Current address: DPMMS, CMS, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WB, England. e-mail: f.ambro@dpmms.cam.ac.uk
Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): Primary 14B05; Secondary 14M25, 52B20 相似文献
19.
Hana Macková Daniela Králová Daniel Horák 《Journal of polymer science. Part A, Polymer chemistry》2007,45(24):5884-5898
The aim of this study was to develop novel thermally responsive polymer microspheres with magnetic properties. Dispersion and inverse emulsion copolymerization of N‐isopropylacrylamide (NIPAAm) and N,N′‐methylenebisacrylamide (MBAAm) was investigated in the presence of γ‐Fe2O3 nanoparticles. The resulting microspheres were characterized in terms of morphology, size, polydispersity, iron content, and temperature‐dependent swelling using optical microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, QELS, and AAS. The effects of several variables, such as the concentration of γ‐Fe2O3, MBAAm crosslinking agent, Span 80 surfactant, 2,2′‐azobis(2‐methyloctanenitrile) (AMON) initiator, and polymerization temperature on the properties of the microspheres were studied. Swelling and thermoresponsive behavior of the microspheres containing γ‐Fe2O3 nanoparticles were also investigated. The microspheres contained about 8 wt % of iron. The presence of magnetic nanoparticles and their concentration changes did not have any significant effect on the temperature sensitivity of the composites. The particles gradually shrink into an increasingly collapsed state when the temperature is raised to 40 °C since the increase in temperature weakens the hydration and PNIPAAm chains gradually become more hydrophobic, which leads to the collapse of the particles. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 5884–5898, 2007 相似文献
20.
Fabrina R S Bentlin Fábio A Duarte Valderi L Dressler Dirce Pozebon 《Analytical sciences》2007,23(9):1097-1101
This work deals with As determination in marine sediment using ultrasound for sample preparation. It is shown that As can be quantitatively extracted from marine sediment using 20% (v/v) HCl and sonication. The slurry is centrifuged and the analyte is determined in the supernatant by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrometry (HG AAS). A flow injection (FI) system is employed for hydride generation, with 0.5% (m/v) NaBH(4) used as reducdant and a 20% (v/v) HCl used as sample carrier. The limit of quantification is 1.6 microg g(-1) of As, which is based on 800 microl of sample solution and 0.200 g of sample mass in a volume of 50 mL. Certified and non certified marine sediment samples were analyzed; the results were in accordance with the certified or reference values. Speciation analysis by HPLC-ICP-MS showed that As(V) is the only detectable As species present in the supernatant of the centrifuged sample. 相似文献