Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Estimation of multivariate binary density using orthogonal functions

In this paper, the authors studied certain properties of the estimate of Liang and Krishnaiah (1985, J. Multivariate Anal. 16, 162–172) for multivariate binary density. An alternative shrinkage estimate is also obtained. The above results are generalized to general orthonormal systems.     

Existence and Stability for Spherical Crystals Growing in a Supersaturated Solution

We consider the growth of a spherical crystal in a supersaturatedsolution. In the first part, existence and uniqueness resultsfor radially symmetric growth are obtained, provided that thesupersaturation is not too large; conversely, when the far-fieldsupersaturation exceeds a critical value, it is shown that theradially symmetric solution ceases to exist in finite time.In the second part, we examine the linear stability of a radiallysymmetric similarity solution (in which the radius grows ast?) to shape perturbations. The results are compared with previousquasi-static analyses, and, in particular, the critical radiusat which the crystal becomes unstable is found to be largerfor small supersaturations, but smaller for large supersaturations,than those predicted by the quasi-static analysis     

Onset of crater formation during short pulse laser ablation

We report morphologic changes of metallic surfaces at the onset of ablation, starting from gentle ablation to the emergence of ablation craters. The evolution of both observed melting zones and of ablation craters therein are investigated in dependence of the ablation laser fluence for nanosecond ultraviolet laser pulses. Further, consequences of crater formation for cluster synthesis within the released atomic vapor are pointed out. PACS 52.38.Mf; 79.20.Ds; 65.40.De     

Electrochemical Recovery of Silver from Lead Alloys in Chloride Melts

Electrochemical separation of lead-silver alloys into the constituents by thin-layer electrolysis in molten electrolytes, with bismuth as metal separator, is studied. It is proposed to determine the extent of component recovery by potentiometry.     

Mass Power Spectrum in a Universe Dominated by the Chaplygin Gas

The mass power spectrum for a Universe dominated by the Chaplygin gas is evaluated numerically from scales of the order of the Hubble horizon to 100 Mpc. The results are compared with a pure baryonic Universe and a cosmological constant model. In all three cases, the spectrum increases with k, the wavenumber of the perturbations. The slope of the spectrum is higher for the baryonic model and smaller for the cosmological constant model, the Chaplygin gas interpolating these two models. The results are analyzed in terms of the sound velocity of the Chaplygin gas and the moment the Universe begins to accelerate.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Inverse Process with Independent Positive Increments: Finite-Dimensional Distributions

An inverse process with independent positive increments is considered. For such a process, the first hitting time τ_x of level x as a function of x ≥ 0 is a proper process with independent positive increments. In terms of first hitting times and their Levy measures, multidemensional distribution densities and Laplace transformations are derived. Stationary distributions of increments of the process are investigated. Bibliography: 8 titles. __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 311, 2004, pp. 286–297.