Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Letter to the Editor

Mathematical Notes -     

Quantum-well states and resonances in thin single-crystal layers of noble metals on W(110) substrates

This paper reports on the first experimental observation of quantum-well states and sp-type resonances in thin single-crystal gold, silver, and copper layers formed on single-crystal W(110) surfaces, which result from spatial localization of Bloch-type electronic wave functions in a quantum well with potential barriers at the vacuum/metal and metal/W(110) interfaces. The quantization of the valence-band electronic structure in Au/W(110), Ag/W(110), and Cu/W(110) systems was studied experimentally using angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy.     

The asymptotics of integral functionals of a multidimensional empirical process

Estimates of a rate of convergence of orderO(n ^–1) are obtained for integral functionals of an empirical process.Translated fromTeoriya Sluchainykh Protsessov, Vol. 15, pp. 10–16, 1987.     

Nonuniform estimates of the stability of the normal law under random perturbations of the scale parameter and some of their applications

Translated fromProblemy Ustoichivosti Stokhasticheskikh Modelei. Trudy Seminara, 1988, pp. 84–92.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Synthesis of methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside

A convenient method is proposed for the synthesis of all the individual methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside based on the partial methylation of 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside with dimethyl sulfate in an alkaline medium followed by preparative liquid column chromatography on silica gel of the resulting mixture of methyl ethers.     

Yb3+掺杂KY(WO4)2激光晶体生长、结构与光谱分析

采用顶部籽晶提拉法(TSSG)生长出Yb:KY(WO₄)₂(Yb:KYW)激光晶体.对预烧后的原料及晶体进行了XRD分析，结果表明，分别在920℃和600℃预烧8h后的熔质和助熔剂基本上形成一相，抑止了实验中的挥发问题；所生长的晶体为β-Yb:KYW，计算其晶格常数为a=1.063nm，b=1.034nm，c=0.755nm，β=130.75°.测得不同厚度样品的吸收光谱，结果表明样品在933nm和981nm有较强的吸收峰，计算出主峰981nm的吸收截面σ关键词： Yb:KYW TSSG法 晶体结构 光谱参数