Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

杂多酸催化合成乙酸乙酯

回流吸附法制备的负载型12-钨磷酸(HPW/C)是合成乙酸乙酯的高效催化剂。最佳反应条件下乙醇转化率达96％,酯化选择性100％。催化剂的高活性是由于HPW在活性炭上高度分散,使活性位增多,有效酸量增大。HPW/C还具有热稳定性高和不易流失等优点。     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

Yb3+掺杂KY(WO4)2激光晶体生长、结构与光谱分析

采用顶部籽晶提拉法(TSSG)生长出Yb:KY(WO₄)₂(Yb:KYW)激光晶体.对预烧后的原料及晶体进行了XRD分析，结果表明，分别在920℃和600℃预烧8h后的熔质和助熔剂基本上形成一相，抑止了实验中的挥发问题；所生长的晶体为β-Yb:KYW，计算其晶格常数为a=1.063nm，b=1.034nm，c=0.755nm，β=130.75°.测得不同厚度样品的吸收光谱，结果表明样品在933nm和981nm有较强的吸收峰，计算出主峰981nm的吸收截面σ关键词： Yb:KYW TSSG法 晶体结构 光谱参数     

应力对M-Z型InP/InGaAsP-EAM偏振

采用Agilent 81910A光子全参量测试仪,首次实验研究了InP/In1－xGaxAs1－yPy-MQW（Multiple-Quantum-Well,MQW）材料与衬底间因应力而产生的M-Z型光调制器的PDL影响以及由此引起的由差分群时延(Differential Group Delay,DGD)表征的偏振模色散(Polarization Mode Dispersion,PMD).研究结果表明,半导体MQW光调制器的PDL与DGD是一致的.因此在半导体光器件的制作过程中,应尽可能地减小衬底与波导芯层之间的因残存应力的存在造成对光器件的高速性能的不利影响.     

Structural and thermodynamic properties of AlB2 compound

We employ a first-principles plane wave method with the relativistic analytic pseudopotential of Hartwigsen, Goedecker and Hutter (HGH) scheme in the frame of DFT to calculate the equilibrium lattice parameters and the thermodynamic properties of AlB₂ compound with hcp structure. The obtained lattice parameters are in good agreement with the available experimental data and those calculated by others. Through the quasi-harmonic Debye model, obtained successfully are the dependences of the normalized lattice parameters a/a₀ and c/c₀ on pressure P, the normalized primitive cell volume V/V₀ on pressure P, the variation of the thermal expansion α with pressure P and temperature T, as well as the Debye temperature \Theta_D and the heat capacity C_V on pressure P and temperature T.     

匀速运动的电偶极子的电场和磁场分布

本文通过对电偶极子电磁势的分析和相对论下电磁场在不同惯性系中的协变分布，计算了作匀速直线运动的电偶极子的电场和磁场的空间分布．     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Study of asymmetric charge writing on Pb(Zr,Ti)O3 thin films by Kelvin probe force microscopy

Polycrystalline Pb(Zr_0.55Ti_0.45)O₃ thin film was deposited on Pt/Ti/SiO₂/Si(1 0 0) by radio-frequency-magnetron sputtering method, and the writing of charge bits on the surface of PZT thin film was studied by Kelvin probe force microscopy. It is found that the surface potential of the negative charge bits are higher than those of the corresponding positive ones. When ferroelectric polarization switching occurs, the potential difference becomes even more remarkable. A qualitative model was proposed to explain the origin of the asymmetric charge writing. It is demonstrated that the internal field in the interface layer, which is near the ferroelectric/electrode interface in ferroelectric film, is likely to be the cause for the occurrence of this phenomenon.     

An unstructured mesh finite volume method for modelling saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers

In this paper, a two-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh method (FVUM) based on a triangular background interpolation mesh is developed for analysing the evolution of the saltwater intrusion into single and multiple coastal aquifer systems. The model formulation consists of a ground-water flow equation and a salt transport equation. These coupled and non-linear partial differential equations are transformed by FVUM into a system of differential/algebraic equations, which is solved using backward differentiation formulas of order one through five. Simulation results are compared with previously published solutions where good agreement is observed.