Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Untersuchungen zur Wechselwirkung von gasf?rmigem molekularem Iod mit Silberoberfl?chen mittels XPS und AES

Summary The adsorption of gaseous molecular iodine on clean silver surfaces proceeds in the first stage by dissociative chemisorption. After the formation of half a monolayer of chemisorbed iodine atoms the formation of silver iodide begins, which forms a very regular overlayer on top of the substrate. Both iodine species can be distinguished due to a difference in chemical shift of the M₄N₄, ₅N₄, ₅-Auger transitions. After completion of this overlayer further iodine uptake is slowed down significantly. Above an overlayer thickness of about 10 nm a further progress of the reaction cannot be followed anymore due to the limited information depth of XPS.     

FT-IR study on solvent effects in building blocks of bioactive compounds. V

3-Hydroxy-4-hydroxymethyl pyrrolidin-2-ones, easily prepared from the Baylis–Hillman adduct 1-ethyl-4-methyl-2-hydroxy-3-methylenebutanedioate, are useful intermediates in the synthesis of bioactive compounds. In order to understand the mechanism involved in this reaction, vibrational and Montecarlo molecular mechanics conformational analysis on 1-ethyl-4-methyl-2-hydroxy-3-methylenebutanedioate were carried out, confirming the existence of a low energy intramolecular H-bonded five-member ring.     

Activity of microemulsion-based nanoparticles at the human bio-nano interface: concentration-dependent effects on thrombosis and hemolysis in whole blood

Background: Although microemulsion-based nanoparticles (MEs) may be useful for drug delivery or scavenging, these benefits must be balanced against potential nanotoxicological effects in biological tissue (bio-nano interface). We investigated the actions of assembled MEs and their individual components at the bio-nano interface of thrombosis and hemolysis in human blood. Methods: Oil-in-water MEs were synthesized using ethylbutyrate, sodium caprylate, and pluronic F-68 (ME4) or F-127 (ME6) in 0.9% NaCl_w/v. The effects of MEs or components on thrombosis were determined using thrombo-elastography, platelet contractile force, clot elastic modulus, and platelet counting. For hemolysis, ME or components were incubated with erythrocytes, centrifuged, and washed for measurement of free hemoglobin by spectroscopy. Results and conclusions: The mean particle diameters (polydispersity index) for ME6 and ME4 were 23.6 ± 2.5 nm (0.362) and 14.0 ± 1.0 nm (0.008), respectively. MEs (0, 0.03, 0.3, 3 mM) markedly reduced the thromboelastograph maximal amplitude in a concentration-dependent manner (49.0 ± 4.2, 39.0 ± 5.6, 15.0 ± 8.7, 3.8 ± 1.3 mm, respectively), an effect highly correlated (r2 = 0.94) with similar changes caused by pluronic surfactants (48.7 ± 10.9, 30.7 ± 15.8, 20.0 ± 11.3, 2.0 ± 0.5) alone. Neither oil nor sodium caprylate alone affected the thromboelastograph. The clot contractile force was reduced by ME (27.3 ± 11.1–6.7 ± 3.4 kdynes/cm², P = 0.02, n = 5) whereas the platelet population not affected (175 ± 28–182 ± 23 10⁶/ml, P = 0.12, n = 6). This data suggests that MEs reduced platelet activity due to associated pluronic surfactants, but caused minimal changes in protein function necessary for coagulation. Although pharmacological concentrations of sodium caprylate caused hemolysis (EC₅₀ = 213 mM), MEs and pluronic surfactants did not disrupt erythrocytes. Knowledge of nanoparticle activity and potential associated nanotoxicity at this bio-nano interface enables rational ME design for in vivo applications.     

Thermal diffusion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains

We study the motion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains in the presence of dissipation and thermal fluctuations. We consider the continuum limit of the discrete system and apply an adiabatic perturbation theory which yields a system of stochastic integro-differential equations for the collective variables of the ansatz for the perturbed envelope soliton. We derive the Fokker-Planck equation of this system and search for a statistically equivalent system of Langevin equations, which shares the same Fokker-Planck equation. We undertake an analytical analysis of the Langevin system and derive an expression for the variance of the soliton position Var[x _s ] which predicts a stronger than linear time dependence of Var[x _s ] (superdiffusion). We compare these results with simulations for the discrete system and find they agree well. We refer to recent studies where the diffusion of pulse solitons were found to exhibit a superdiffusive behaviour on longer time scales.Received: 28 June 2004, Published online: 26 November 2004PACS: 05.10.Gg Stochastic analysis methods - 05.45.Yv Solitons - 05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion - 05.50. + q Lattice theory and statistics     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.