The relationship between physical observables and the potential energy surface in the He-HF system

This paper examines the effect of infinitesimal functional variations in a rigid rotor He-HF potential surface on several different types of observables: inelastic cross sections, rate constants, and rotational energy level populations. The dynamics and kinetic observables studied were found to be sensitive to a large number of Legendre components of the potential with the region of highest sensitivity dependent upon the energy or temperature as well as the states related by the individual observable. Sensitivity to the entire surface tends to show a large degree of structure due to competition among sensitivities to the individual potential components. Significant information loss has been observed in the transition from microscopic to macroscopic observables.     

Survivable network design under optimal and heuristic interdiction scenarios

We examine the problem of building or fortifying a network to defend against enemy attacks in various scenarios. In particular, we examine the case in which an enemy can destroy any portion of any arc that a designer constructs on the network, subject to some interdiction budget. This problem takes the form of a three-level, two-player game, in which the designer acts first to construct a network and transmit an initial set of flows through the network. The enemy acts next to destroy a set of constructed arcs in the designer’s network, and the designer acts last to transmit a final set of flows in the network. Most studies of this nature assume that the enemy will act optimally; however, in real-world scenarios one cannot necessarily assume rationality on the part of the enemy. Hence, we prescribe optimal network design algorithms for three different profiles of enemy action: an enemy destroying arcs based on capacities, based on initial flows, or acting optimally to minimize our maximum profits obtained from transmitting flows.     

Sensitivity of hypersaline Arabian Gulf to seawater desalination plants

Due to the hot, arid nature of its bordering lands, seawater in the Arabian Gulf can have significant evaporation rates leading to hypersaline conditions. If additional desalination plants were to operate along its coast, then the extraction of desalinated water and returned brine waste stream into the Gulf would increase the salinity. This paper uses a tidally and cross-sectionally averaged mathematical model that reveals multiplicative dependence of the salinity on factors associated with river flow, evaporation rates and each of the desalination plants. Present-day desalinated water production rates are in the linear regime, but hypersalinity has exponential sensitivity to the position and volumetric rate of desalinated water extraction.     

Territories,corridors, and networks: A biological model for the premodern state

When depicted on maps as homogenous territorial wholes, ancient states are visually summarized as static entities in a way that conceals the highly fluid dynamics of polity formation, maintenance, and growth. Models derived from studies of animal behavior show that “territory” does not consist of an undifferentiated use of the landscape. Instead, the concept of territory can be parsed into a series of resource‐rich nodes linked by corridors of access, surrounded by unutilized regions and boundaries marked at points of competition. Ancient human groups also can be analyzed as having perceived and occupied landscapes through strategies of flexible networks in which nodes and corridors were surrounded by unutilized spaces around which boundaries were selectively identified and defended. This strategy is identifiable in human social groups at different levels of complexity ranging from hunter‐gatherers through ancient chiefdoms and states. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 12: 28–35, 2007     

A six-step synthesis of (S)-5-ethenyl-3-(1-methyl-2-pyrrolidinyl)pyridine (SIB-1508Y) from (S)-nicotine

The anti-Parkinson’s agent SIB-1508Y was prepared in six steps from (S)-nicotine in 20% overall yield. The strategy involves a regioselective formylation at C-5 of a 1,4-dihydronicotine intermediate.     

Pure adaptive search in monte carlo optimization

Pure adaptive search constructs a sequence of points uniformly distributed within a corresponding sequence of nested regions of the feasible space. At any stage, the next point in the sequence is chosen uniformly distributed over the region of feasible space containing all points that are equal or superior in value to the previous points in the sequence. We show that for convex programs the number of iterations required to achieve a given accuracy of solution increases at most linearly in the dimension of the problem. This compares to exponential growth in iterations required for pure random search.     

On the evolution of islands

Letn cells be arranged in a ring, or alternatively, in a row. Initially, all cells are unmarked. Sequentially, one of the unmarked cells is chosen at random and marked until, aftern steps, each cell is marked. After thekth cell has been marked the configuration of marked cells defines some number of islands: maximal sets of adjacent marked cells. Let ξ _k denote the random number of islands afterk cells have been marked. We give explicit expressions for moments of products of ξ _k ’s and for moments of products of 1/ξ _k ’s. These are used in a companion paper to prove that if a random graph on the natural number is made by drawing an edge betweeni≧1 andj>i with probabilityλ/j, then the graph is almost surely connected ifλ>1/4 and almost surely disconnected ifλ≦1/4.     

Discontinuity in decision-making when objectives conflict: a military command decision case study

In previous work, we considered the representation of human decision-making processes in closed-form simulation models of conflict. An important element of this representation is the rapid planning process that embodies the processing of information for situation assessment to support a course of action decision (eg in a military headquarters). The application of this work is in support of operational analysis models for defence procurement and balance of investment. This paper describes the application of non-linear multi-attribute utility theory in conflict scenarios in order to extend the representation of the rapid planning process to account for a wider set of subjective attributes of the decision-maker. The results show, through examination of experimental data, that decision-making can be modelled through a particular class of utility functions. These utilities embody a geometry which allows us to classify the types of decision being made when there are conflicting objectives and when decision-makers adopt very different and subjective appraisals of constraints and beliefs in outcome. The experimental results help to demonstrate that the subjective nature of the situation assessment, and the personality, training, experience and history of the decision-maker are central to the functional representations. This paper presents a way to capture this deeper representation of human decision-making in a way that is potentially useful for quantitative modelling using the rapid planning process as a basis.