On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Beryllium (boron) clustering quest in relativistic multifragmentation (BECQUEREL Project)

A physical program of irradiation of emulsions in beams of relativistic nuclei named the BECQUEREL Project is reviewed. It is destined to study in detail the processes of relativistic fragmentation of light radioactive and stable nuclei. The expected results would make it possible to answer some topical questions concerning the cluster structure of light nuclei. Owing to the best spatial resolution, the nuclear emulsions would enable one to obtain unique and evident results. The most important irradiations will be performed in the secondary beams of He, Be, B, C, and N radioactive nuclei formed on the basis of JINR Nuclotron beams of stable nuclei. We present results on the charged state topology of relativistic fragmentation of the ¹⁰B nucleus at low energy-momentum transfers as the first step of the research.     

Group Representation of Relativistic Quantum Crystal Optics

A group representation of radiation propagation in an anisotropic medium is developed. The system of wave equations for electromagnetic potentials, obtained from the Maxwell equations with account for the constitutive equations, has been factorized. It is shown that the linear differential operator of the factorized system is orthogonal in transparent crystals and unitary in gyrotropic ones and is represented through the momentum operator. On the basis of the commutation relations for the components of this operator, the eigenvalue problem has been solved and the expression for the change in the radiant energy in the crystal in the form of spherical waves has been obtained. The dependences of the ray and phase velocities and the polarization vectors of waves on the birefringence anisotropy and gyrotropy as well as on the angular momentum, displacement current, and bound charge determining them have been analyzed. It has been established that in the general case of gyrotropic crystals where the nonreciprocity phenomenon takes place and in magnetoelectrics Maxwell equations are represented in a form similar to the Dirac equations and the electromagnetic radiation is correctly described by means of bispinors and is quantized as fermions.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Synthesis and properties of the nanocomposite of zink oxide and poly(amic acid)

The composite comprised of zinc oxide quantum dots and poly(amic acid) (PAAc) was prepared and studied by X-rays diffraction, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, light scattering, UV absorbance and UV fluorescence. The UV absorbance of the ZnO/PAAc composite was found to be much larger than that of its components taken separately. The fluorescence of the ZnO/PAAc composite was found to be shifted to longer wavelengthes in comparison with pure ZnO. The presence of the dopant dodecylbenzenesulfonic acid was found to affect the observed fluorescence.     

Electric Instability in <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-CdTe:In Layers with <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-Shaped Voltage-Current Characteristics

A switching of the S-type in the 20–200 μm thick polycrystalline n-CdTe:In layers with resistance of 10³–10⁶ Ω·cm is studied. The electric instability in the layers is found to be due to the electron-thermal breakdown mechanism. The dependence of the switching threshold parameters on the intensity of exposure can be used for fabrication of infrared-radiation controlled electric switches on the basis of n-CdTe:In layers. __________ Translated from Izvestiya Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zavedenii, Fizika, No. 6, pp. 28–30, June, 2005.     

Anionic iron(II) alkoxides as initiators for the controlled ring‐opening polymerization of lactide

Hetero‐bimetallic Fe(II) alkoxide/aryloxides were evaluated as initiators for the ring‐opening polymerization of rac‐lactide. [(THF)NaFe(O^tBu)₃]₂ ( 1 ) and [(THF)₄Na₂Fe(2,6‐diisopropylphenolate)₄] ( 2 ) (THF = tetrahydrofuran) both polymerized lactide efficiently at room temperature, with complex 1 affording better control over the molecular weight parameters of the resultant polymer. At conversions below 70%, a linear increase in molecular weight with conversion was observed, indicative of a well‐controlled polymerization process. Complex 2 is the first example of a dianionic Fe(II) alkoxide and has been structurally characterized to reveal a distorted square planar FeO₄ array in which both Na counterions bridge two aryloxide ligands and are further complexed by two THF ligands. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 3798–3803, 2003     

Elastic scattering of slow positrons on atoms

The results of calculations of the elastic scattering cross section of positrons on noble gas and alkali atoms are presented. The calculations are performed within the one-electron Hartree-Fock approximation with multielectron correlations in the so-called random phase approximation with exchange taken into account. Virtual positronium formation is taken into account and proved to be very important. Arguments are presented that the positron polarization potential is repulsive for alkali atoms. The results obtained are in a reasonable agreement with experiment and with some previously reported calculations.     

effect of surface modification on the properties of hydrogen-sensitive GaAs-based Schottky diodes

The surface of hydrogen-sensitive GaAs Schottky diodes is modified by nonpolishing etching and by producing quantum wells and quantum dots in the space-charge region of the semiconductor. The sensitivity to hydrogen is found to increase by a factor of 8–37 after the etching and by two or three orders of magnitude after the introduction of quantum wells and dots. It is shown that the increased sensitivity is associated with the lowering of the barrier at the Pd/GaAs interface, the retardation of hydrogen diffusion into GaAs due to the presence of strained quantum-size layers, and an increase in the recombination current. The presence of the recombination component is supported by luminescence from the quantum wells and quantum dots, as well as from the GaAs substrate. The etch composition is shown to be a decisive factor in raising the sensitivity.     

Radiative lifetimes in Ce I and Ce II

New radiative lifetime measurements based on time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence techniques are reported for 18 even-parity levels belonging to the 4f5d^26p and 4f ²5d ² configurations of Ce I and 6 even-parity levels belonging to the 5d^26s, 4f5d6p, and 4f6s6p configurations of Ce II. Free neutral and singly ionized cerium atoms were produced by laser ablation. The Ce I and Ce II levels range in energy from 26 545 to 29 102 cm^-1, and 42 573 to 48 152 cm^-1, respectively. Received 25 September 2002 Published online 4 March 2003