Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.     

Validation of fuzzy logic method for automated mass spectral classification for mineral imaging

Imaging mass spectrometry requires the acquisition and interpretation of hundreds to thousands of individual spectra in order to map the mineral phases within heterogeneous geomatrices. A fuzzy logic inference engine (FLIE) was developed to automate data interpretation. To evaluate the strengths and limitations of FLIE, the chemical images obtained using FLIE were compared with those developed using two chemometric methods: principle component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (K-Means). Two heterogeneous geomatrices, a low-grade chalcopyrite ore and basalt, were imaged using a laser-desorption Fourier transform mass spectrometer. Similar mineral distribution patterns in the chalcopyrite ore sample were obtained by the three data analysis methods with most of the differences occurring at the interfaces between mineral phases. PCA missed one minor mineral phase in the chalcopyrite ore sample and did not clearly differentiate among the mineral classes of the basalt. K-Means cluster analysis differentiated among the various mineral phases in both samples, but improperly grouped some spectra in the chalcopyrite sample that only contained unanticipated high mass peaks. Unlike the chemometric methods, FLIE was able to classify spectra as unknowns for those spectra that fell below the confidence level threshold. A nearest neighbor approach, included in FLIE, was used to classify the unknowns to form a visually complete image; however, the unknowns identified by FLIE can be informative because they highlight potential problems or overlooked results. In conclusion, this study validated the fuzzy logic-based approach used in our laboratory and reveald some limitations in the three techniques that were evaluated.     

Effect of oxygen exposure on the magnetic properties of ultrathin Co/Ge(1 1 1) films

Influences of oxygen exposure on the magnetic properties of Co/Ge(1 1 1) ultrathin films have been investigated by surface magneto-optic Kerr effect technique. As the oxygen exposure increases on Co/Ge(1 1 1) films, their magnetic properties could be modified. As an example for 15 ML Co/Ge(1 1 1) films, the coercivity increases from 730 to 920 Oe and the remanence Kerr intensity is reduced for 500 Langmuir (L) of oxygen exposure. Corresponding compositions analyzed by Auger electron spectroscopy measurement shows that the amount of oxygen on the surface layers increases with increasing the oxygen exposure time. Oxygen distributes on the topmost layers of the film. The adsorbed oxygen influences the electronic density of states of Co and results in the changes of the magnetic properties. Besides, the appearance of O/Co/Ge interface could modify the stress anisotropy, and as a result the coercivity of ultrathin Co/Ge(1 1 1) film is enhanced.     

Extraordinary optical transmission through metal-coated colloidal monolayers

Extraordinary optical transmission through metal-coated close-packed monolayers has been observed. The monolayers consist of silica (a-SiO₂) or polystyrene microspheres that form two-dimensional close-packed lattices by self-assembly. Metal layers of Ag, Au and Ni with different thicknesses (larger than the skin depth) were evaporated onto such lattices by means of standard techniques. The optical transmission spectra investigated between 300 and 2500 nm show pronounced peaks that scale with the diameter and the optical properties of the composite slabs. The enhanced transmission observed is most likely mediated via plasmons. PACS 78.66.-w; 81.16.Dn; 82.70.Dd     

Titanium nanocarbides: Synthesis and modeling

The present state of research on the production and modeling of nanostructures based on titanium carbide-a typical representative of an extensive class of carbides of d-and f-metals-is reviewed. Methods for the synthesis of various Ti-C nanostructures (molecular clusters, nanocrystallites, nanospheres, nanofibers, nanowires) are examined, and their morphology, atomic structure, and known physicochemical characteristics are described. Theoretical models of the atomic structure and properties of new types of nanostructures in the titanium-carbon system (endo-and exohedral titanofullerenes, “hybrid” structures based on carbon nanotubes, the so-called peapods, nanocables, and a number of others) and the prospects for their application as components of nanoceramics, hydrogen accumulators, materials for spintronics, etc. are discussed. __________ Translated from Teoreticheskaya i éksperimental’naya Khimiya, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 1–23, January–February, 2007.