Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.     

Application of pressure sensitive paint measurement to a low-solidity cascade diffuser of a transonic centrifugal compressor

A pressure sensitive paint (PSP) measurement has been known as a pressure field measurement technique based on the oxygen quenching phenomenon of luminescence of specific luminophores. A PSP measurement was applied for pressure field measurement in a low-solidity circular cascade diffuser of a single-stage transonic centrifugal compressor with 5 in pressure ratio for HFC134a gas. The oxygen concentration was about 500 ppm. Ru (bath-phen) was adsorbed on a silica-gel thinlayer chromatography sheet, and the sheet was pasted onto the side-wall between the cascade vanes. A drastic change in luminescent intensity was recognized during a surge condition. Also the pressure variations based on luminescent intensity agreed well with the pressure fluctuations measured using a semiconductor pressure sensor with high-frequency-response. It was shown that a PSP measurement worked well to investigate the unsteady pressure fields in a circular cascade diffuser of a transonic centrifugal compressor. Moreover, the time response of PSP becomes clear as a problem to be overcome for the present.     

Generalized Longo–Rehren Subfactors and α-Induction

We study the recent construction of subfactors by Rehren which generalizes the Longo–Rehren subfactors. We prove that if we apply this construction to a non-degenerately braided subfactor N⊂M and α^±-induction, then the resulting subfactor is dual to the Longo–Rehren subfactor M⊗M ^opp⊂R arising from the entire system of irreducible endomorphisms of M resulting from α^plusmn;-induction. As a corollary, we solve a problem on existence of braiding raised by Rehren negatively. Furthermore, we generalize our previous study with Longo and Müger on multi-interval subfactors arising from a completely rational conformal net of factors on S ¹ to a net of subfactors and show that the (generalized) Longo–Rehren subfactors and α-induction naturally appear in this context. Received: 11 September 2001 / Accepted: 7 October 2001     

Complete ideals and singularities of space curves

We consider complete ideals supported on finite sequences of infinitely near points, in regular local rings with dimensions greater than two. We study properties of factorizations in Lipman special *-simple complete ideals. We relate it to a type of proximity, linear proximity, of the points, and give conditions in order to have unique factorization. Several examples are presented. Received: 2 February 2000 / in final form: 14 March 2001 / Published online: 18 January 2002     

CMS physics overview

The principal physics goals of the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment under construction at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN in Geneva are reviewed. Procedures to search for the Standard Model Higgs boson, supersymmetric Higgses and other supersymmetric particles are described.