Nowcasting Avalanches as Earthquakes and the Predictability of Strong Avalanches in the Olami-Feder-Christensen Model

Nowcasting earthquakes, suggested recently as a method to estimate the state of a fault and hence the seismic risk, is based on the concept of natural time. Here, we generalize nowcasting to a prediction method the merits of which are evaluated by means of the receiver operating characteristics. This new prediction method is applied to a simple (toy) model for the waiting (natural) time of the stronger earthquakes, real seismicity, and the Olami-Feder-Christensen earthquake model with interesting results revealing acceptable to excellent or even outstanding performance.     

Monte Carlo approximation through Gibbs output in generalized linear mixed models

Geyer (J. Roy. Statist. Soc. 56 (1994) 291) proposed Monte Carlo method to approximate the whole likelihood function. His method is limited to choosing a proper reference point. We attempt to improve the method by assigning some prior information to the parameters and using the Gibbs output to evaluate the marginal likelihood and its derivatives through a Monte Carlo approximation. Vague priors are assigned to the parameters as well as the random effects within the Bayesian framework to represent a non-informative setting. Then the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained through the Newton Raphson method. Thus, out method serves as a bridge between Bayesian and classical approaches. The method is illustrated by analyzing the famous salamander mating data by generalized linear mixed models.     

Decision strategies of hearing-impaired listeners in spectral shape discrimination

The ability to discriminate between sounds with different spectral shapes was evaluated for normal-hearing and hearing-impaired listeners. Listeners detected a 920-Hz tone added in phase to a single component of a standard consisting of the sum of five tones spaced equally on a logarithmic frequency scale ranging from 200 to 4200 Hz. An overall level randomization of 10 dB was either present or absent. In one subset of conditions, the no-perturbation conditions, the standard stimulus was the sum of equal-amplitude tones. In the perturbation conditions, the amplitudes of the components within a stimulus were randomly altered on every presentation. For both perturbation and no-perturbation conditions, thresholds for the detection of the 920-Hz tone were measured to compare sensitivity to changes in spectral shape between normal-hearing and hearing-impaired listeners. To assess whether hearing-impaired listeners relied on different regions of the spectrum to discriminate between sounds, spectral weights were estimated from the perturbed standards by correlating the listener's responses with the level differences per component across two intervals of a two-alternative forced-choice task. Results showed that hearing-impaired and normal-hearing listeners had similar sensitivity to changes in spectral shape. On average, across-frequency correlation functions also were similar for both groups of listeners, suggesting that as long as all components are audible and well separated in frequency, hearing-impaired listeners can use information across frequency as well as normal-hearing listeners. Analysis of the individual data revealed, however, that normal-hearing listeners may be better able to adopt optimal weighting schemes. This conclusion is only tentative, as differences in internal noise may need to be considered to interpret the results obtained from weighting studies between normal-hearing and hearing-impaired listeners.     

Tame combing and almost convexity conditions

We give the first examples of groups which admit a tame combing with linear radial tameness function with respect to any choice of finite presentation, but which are not minimally almost convex on a standard generating set. Namely, we explicitly construct such combings for Thompson??s group F and the Baumslag?CSolitar groups BS(1, p) with p ??? 3. In order to make this construction for Thompson??s group F, we significantly expand the understanding of the Cayley complex of this group with respect to the standard finite presentation. In particular we describe a quasigeodesic set of normal forms and combinatorially classify the arrangements of 2-cells adjacent to edges that do not lie on normal form paths.     

The structure and maximum number of maximum independent sets in trees

A subset of vertices is a maximum independent set if no two of the vertices are joined by an edge and the subset has maximum cardinality. in this paper we answer a question posed by Herb Wilf. We show that the greatest number of maximum independent sets for a tree of n vertices is We give the families of trees on which these maxima are achieved. Proving which trees are extremal depends upon the structure of maximum independent sets in trees. This structure is described in terms of adjacency rules between three types of vertices, those which are in all, no, or some maximum independent sets. We show that vertices that are in some but not all maximum independent sets of the tree are joined in pairs by the α-critical edges (edges whose removal increases the size of a maximum independent set). The number of maximum independent sets is shown to depend on the structure within the tree of the α-critical edges.     

Optimal risk retention under partial insurance

This paper examines the situation where a risk-averse insured determines the optimal amount of deductible (or stop-loss) insurance. The insurer uses two different premium principles, the expected value principle and the exponential principle. The insured has an exponential utility function. Specific numerical results are obtained for the optimal stop-loss limit in the case of a group life insurance plan. The exact results are contrasted with those obtained by using the normal approximation instead of the exact distribution of aggregate claims.     

Additivity of tunnel number for small knots

We show that for small knots , and that for small knots . Received: March 10, 1997.     

Teaching Multiple Modes of Representation in Middle‐School Science Classrooms: Impact on Student Learning and Multimodal Use

This quasi‐experimental study investigated how explicit instruction about multiple modes of representation (MMR) impacted grades 7 (n = 61) and 8 (n = 141) students’ learning and multimodal use on end‐of‐unit assessments. Half of each teacher's (n = 3) students received an intervention consisting of explicit instruction on MMR in science discourse, in addition to regular science instruction enhanced by a focus on MMR; comparison groups of students received regular science instruction. Three ordinary least squares regression models used student demographic variables and whether or not students received the intervention to predict students’ (a) gain scores on end‐of‐unit tests, (b) voluntary use of embedded MMR on unit tests, and (c) retention of science knowledge as measured by a state end‐of‐level criterion‐referenced assessment. Analyses showed that explicit instruction on MMR did not make a significant impact on student gain scores, the amount of embeddedness on unit tests, or end‐of‐level scores. However, Models 2 and 3 showed Hispanics and females used MMR more on end‐of‐unit tests than Whites or males, respectively, whether or not they received the intervention. Hispanics and females scored lower than Whites or males, respectively, on end‐of‐level, multiple‐choice assessments. Implications for classroom teachers and educational researchers in relation to these underserved populations are discussed.     

Gold nanoshell bioconjugates for molecular imaging in living cells

Advances in scattering-based optical imaging technologies offer a new approach to noninvasive point-of-care detection, diagnosis, and monitoring of cancer. Emerging photonics technologies provide a cost-effective means to image tissue in vivo with high resolution in real time. Advancing the clinical potential of these imaging strategies requires the development of optical contrast agents targeted to specific molecular signatures of disease. We describe the use of a novel class of contrast agents based on nanoshell bioconjugates for molecular imaging in living cells. Nanoshells offer significant advantages over conventional imaging probes including continuous and broad wavelength tunability, far greater scattering and absorption coefficients, increased chemical stability, and improved biocompatibility. We show that nanoshell bioconjugates can be used to effectively target and image human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), a clinically relevant biomarker, in live human breast carcinoma cells.