Allocating operating funding in the public sector and the newsvendor problem

Public sector managers, particularly those at the highest level of government, tend to view lapsed (or unused) funds at the end of a fiscal year as a consequence of poor management and/or inadequate financial controls. The aim of this paper is to challenge this view. We show that the planning environment in the public sector is in essence the classical Newsvendor Problem. This simple model argues that lapsed funds are a direct consequence of a manager doing his job properly; that is, lapsed funds occur from time to time when a manager is maximizing value for the organization. An extension of the model shows that allowing low-value year-end spending has an undesirable effect on the value of spending during the year and this suggests a role for a strong audit function for year-end spending.     

Fluxionality in mixed-metal osmium carbonyl clusters

The heteronuclear clusters [Os₁₀C(CO)₂₄(MPR_3n^m− (n = 1, m = 1; 2: M = Au; 3: M = Ag; 4: M = Cu; 5 n = 2, m = 0, M = Ag) have been prepared. These clusters undergo molecular rearrangements in solution, and two isomeric forms of 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 have been identified. This interconversion is thought to involve a cap [lrarr2] edge bridge [lrarr2] cap pathway.     

Parameter estimation of an asymmetric vocal-fold system from glottal area time series using chaos synchronization

In this paper, we apply an iterative parameter adaption scheme based on chaos synchronization to estimate system parameters of the asymmetric vocal folds from glottal area time series. The original asymmetric vocal-fold system associated with recurrent laryngeal paralysis shows chaotic vibrations with positive Lyapunov exponents. Aperiodic glottal area time series from the original system will be applied as the feedback variable coupling the simulative and the original vocal-fold systems. The parameter adaption technique based on chaos synchronization is employed to manipulate the simulative system parameters. The chaotic vibrations, system parameters, and the bifurcation diagram of the original vocal-fold system can be exactly reproduced in the simulative system, and the two chaotic systems can be synchronized. Furthermore, the effects of noise, sampling rate, and equation difference due to nonlinear spring terms on vocal-fold parameter estimations are investigated. Despite large noise perturbations, large equation differences, and low sampling rate, the parameter adaption scheme can effectively estimate the original vocal-fold system parameters. This study provides a theoretical base to apply chaos synchronization to estimate the vocal-fold system parameters from the glottal area data and show its potential application in laryngeal physiology.     

Quasi-active suspension design using magnetorheological dampers

Quasi-active damping is a method of coupled mechanical and control system design using multiple semi-active dampers. By designing the systems such that the desired control force may always be achieved using a combination of the dampers, quasi-active damping seeks to approach levels of vibration isolation achievable through active damping, whilst retaining the desirable attributes of semi-active systems. In this article a design is proposed for a quasi-active, base-isolating suspension system.Control laws are firstly defined in a generalised form, where semi-active dampers are considered as idealised variable viscous dampers. This system is used to demonstrate in detail the principles of quasi-active damping, in particular the necessary interaction between mechanical and control systems. It is shown how such a system can produce a tunable, quasi-active region in the frequency response of very low displacement transmissibility.Quasi-active control laws are then proposed which are specific for use with magnetorheological dampers. These are validated in simulation using a realistic model of the damper dynamics, again producing a quasi-active region in the frequency response. Finally, the robustness of the magnetorheological, quasi-active suspension system is demonstrated.     

Modeling longevity risks using a principal component approach: A comparison with existing stochastic mortality models

This research proposes a mortality model with an age shift to project future mortality using principal component analysis (PCA). Comparisons of the proposed PCA model with the well-known models—the Lee-Carter model, the age-period-cohort model (Renshaw and Haberman, 2006), and the Cairns, Blake, and Dowd model—employ empirical studies of mortality data from six countries, two each from Asia, Europe, and North America. The mortality data come from the human mortality database and span the period 1970-2005. The proposed PCA model produces smaller prediction errors for almost all illustrated countries in its mean absolute percentage error. To demonstrate longevity risk in annuity pricing, we use the proposed PCA model to project future mortality rates and analyze the underestimated ratio of annuity price for whole life annuity and deferred whole life annuity product respectively. The effect of model risk on annuity pricing is also investigated by comparing the results from the proposed PCA model with those from the LC model. The findings can benefit actuaries in their efforts to deal with longevity risk in pricing and valuation.     

Stability and instability properties of rotating Bose–Einstein condensates

We consider the mean-field dynamics of Bose–Einstein condensates in rotating harmonic traps and establish several stability and instability properties for the corresponding solution. We particularly emphasize the difference between the situation in which the trap is symmetric with respect to the rotation axis and the one where this is not the case.