Health-based pharmaceutical pay-for-performance risk-sharing agreements

Many new drugs, such as biologics and cancer drugs, are very costly. However, their effectiveness outside of clinical trial settings is often uncertain at the time they gain market approval. This uncertainty may reflect a lack of real-world outcomes data, as opposed to clinical trials data, for a typical patient population. A risk-sharing agreement is a contract between a drug manufacturer and a healthcare payer to help manage uncertainties regarding the cost and effectiveness of those drugs. In this paper, we model a risk-sharing agreement in which a proportion of total sales is rebated. We model disease progression using a continuous time Markov chain with uncertain transition rates. We examine the performance of this risk-sharing agreement from the manufacturer’s perspective and investigate the conditions under which the manufacturer will make a profit. We illustrate with a numerical model parameterized using data from a Phase 2 clinical trial of an oncology drug that was subjected to a risk-sharing agreement in the UK.     

Single‐pulse pulsed laser polymerization–electron paramagnetic resonance investigations into the termination kinetics of n‐butyl acrylate macromonomers

The termination of model mid‐chain radicals (MCRs), which mimic radicals that occur in acrylate polymerization over a broad range of reaction conditions, has been studied by single‐pulse pulsed laser polymerization (SP‐PLP) in conjunction with electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. The model radicals were generated by initiator‐fragment addition to acrylic macromonomers that were preformed prior to the kinetic experiments, thus enabling separation of termination from the propagation reaction, for these model radicals propagate sparingly, if at all, on the timescale of SP‐PLP experiments. Termination rate coefficients of the MCRs were determined in the temperature range of 0–60°C in acetonitrile and butyl propionate solution as well as in bulk macromonomer over the range of 0–100 °C. Termination rate coefficients slightly below those of the corresponding secondary radicals were deduced, demonstrating the relatively high termination activity of this species, even when undergoing MCR–MCR termination. For chain length of 10, a reduction by a factor of 6 is observed. Unusually high activation energies were found for the termination rate coefficient in these systems, with 35 kJ mol^?1 being determined for bulk macromonomer. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem, 2012     

Silicon‐containing trifunctional and tetrafunctional cyanate esters: Synthesis,cure kinetics,and network properties

The synthesis and physical properties of new silicon‐containing polyfunctional cyanate ester monomers methyl[tris(4‐cyanatophenyl)]silane and tetrakis(4‐cyanatophenyl)silane, as well as polycyanurate networks formed from these monomers are reported. The higher crosslinking functionality compared to di(cyanate ester) monomers enables much higher ultimate glass transition temperatures to be obtained as a result of thermal cyclotrimerization. The ability to reach complete conversion is greatly enhanced by cocure of the new monomers with di(cyanate ester) monomers such as 1,1‐bis(4‐cyanatophenyl)ethane. The presence of silicon in these polycyanurate networks imparts improved resistance to rapid oxidation at elevated temperatures, resulting in char yields as high as 70% under nitrogen and 56% in air in the best‐performing networks. The water uptake in the silicon‐containing networks examined is 4–6 wt % after 96 h of immersion at 85 °C, considerably higher than both carbon‐containing and/or di(cyanate ester) analogs. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J. Polym. Sci., Part A: Polym. Chem. 2014 , 52, 767–779     

Weak invariance principles for sums of dependent random functions

Motivated by problems in functional data analysis, in this paper we prove the weak convergence of normalized partial sums of dependent random functions exhibiting a Bernoulli shift structure.     

Well adjusted: Using expediting and cancelation to manage store replenishment inventory for a seasonal good

We consider an inventory problem that can be translated into a two-period newsvendor setting where the day prior to sales, the newsvendor places an initial preliminary order—a semi-binding forecast—with the publisher. At the beginning of the actual day of sales, the newsvendor has a better forecast for the day’s demand: based on knowing the actual content of the paper, he knows whether it will be a high-demand day due to breaking news or a low-demand day due to slow news. He then can revise the preliminary order quantity by expediting additional papers or canceling all or part of the order, but each of these activities has an associated cost.