A dynamic scorecard for monitoring baseline performance with application to tracking a mortgage portfolio

A principled technique for monitoring the performance of a consumer credit scorecard through time is derived from Kalman filtering. Standard approaches sporadically compare certain characteristics of the new applicants with those predicted from the scorecard. The new approach systematically updates the scorecard combining new applicant information with the previous best estimate. The dynamically updated scorecard is tracked through time and compared to limits calculated by sequential simulation from the baseline scorecard. The observation equation of the Kalman filter is tailored to take the results of fitting local scorecards by logistic regression to batches of new clients that arrive in the current time interval. The states in the Kalman filter represent the true or underlying score for each attribute in the card: the parameters of the logistic regression. Their progress in time is modelled by a random walk and the filter provides the best estimate of the scores using past and present information. We illustrate the technique using a commercial mortgage portfolio and the results indicate significant emerging deficiencies in the baseline scorecard.     

System dependence of the correlation function of IMFs in Ar + Sn at 35 MeV/u

The inclusive reduced velocity correlation functions of the intermediate mass fragments were measured in the reactions of ³⁶Ar + ^112,124Sn at 35 MeV/u. The anti-correlation is observed to be stronger in ³⁶Ar + ¹²⁴Sn system than that in ³⁶Ar + ¹¹²Sn. The difference of the correlation functions between the two reactions is mainly contributed by the particle pairs with high momenta. A three body Coulomb repulsive trajectory model is employed to calculate the emission time scale of the IMFs for the two systems. The time scale is 150 fm/c in ³⁶Ar + ¹¹²Sn and 120 fm/c in the ³⁶Ar + ¹²⁴Sn, respectively.     

Group-valued measures on coarse-grained quantum logics

In [3] it was shown that a (real) signed measure on a cyclic coarse-grained quantum logic can be extended, as a signed measure, over the entire power algebra. Later ([9]) this result was re-proved (and further improved on) and, moreover, the non-negative measures were shown to allow for extensions as non-negative measures. In both cases the proof technique used was the technique of linear algebra. In this paper we further generalize the results cited by extending group-valued measures on cyclic coarse-grained quantum logics (or non-negative group-valued measures for lattice-ordered groups). Obviously, the proof technique is entirely different from that of the preceding papers. In addition, we provide a new combinatorial argument for describing all atoms of cyclic coarse-grained quantum logics.     

Mixed Elastico-Plasticity Problems with Partially Unknown Boundaries

In this paper,we study mixed elastico-plasticity problems in which part of the boundary is known,while the other part of the boundary is unknown and is a free boundary.Under certain conditions,this problemcan be transformed into a Riemann-Hilbert boundary value problem for analytic functions and a mixed boundaryvalue problem for complex equations.Using the theory of generalized analytic functions,the solvability of theproblem is discussed.     

Bimodal fission in binary and ternary spontaneous fission of 252Cf

The hot bimodal fission of ²⁵²Cf is reexamined with new high-statistics data. We constructed a γ-γ-γ coincidence cube for binary fission and LCP-gated γ-γ matrix for ternary fission. By identifying the secondary fission fragments from their γ-ray transitions, we measured the yields for various fission splits. The normal neutron yield distribution is found to be Gaussian for Xe-Ru. However, the binary fission split of Ba-Mo is found to exhibit a bimodal neutron distribution with the “hot mode” corresponding to ≈3.1% of the total yield. In α ternary fission, the first measurements of yields for specific fission splits are presented. The Te-α-Ru and Xe-α-Mo neutron yields fit well with a single mode, but the Ba-α-Zr split shows evidence for an enhanced hot mode with an intensity of ≈13.8% of the normal mode. The text was submitted by the authors in English.     

Asymmetric responses of international stock markets to trading volume

The major goal of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that stock returns and return volatility are asymmetric, threshold nonlinear, functions of change in trading volume. A minor goal is to examine whether return spillover effects also display such asymmetry. Employing a double-threshold GARCH model with trading volume as a threshold variable, we find strong evidence supporting this hypothesis in five international market return series. Asymmetric causality tests lend further support to our trading volume threshold model and conclusions. Specifically, an increase in volume is positively associated, while decreasing volume is negatively associated, with the major price index in four of the five markets. The volatility of each series also displays an asymmetric reaction, four of the markets display higher volatility following increases in trading volume. Using posterior odds ratio, the proposed threshold model is strongly favored in three of the five markets, compared to a US news double threshold GARCH model and a symmetric GARCH model. We also find significant nonlinear asymmetric return spillover effects from the US market.     

Property (<Emphasis Type="Italic">T</Emphasis>) and rigidity for actions on Banach spaces

We study property (T) and the fixed-point property for actions on L ^p and other Banach spaces. We show that property (T) holds when L ² is replaced by L ^p (and even a subspace/quotient of L ^p ), and that in fact it is independent of 1≤p<∞. We show that the fixed-point property for L ^p follows from property (T) when 1<p< 2+ε. For simple Lie groups and their lattices, we prove that the fixed-point property for L ^p holds for any 1< p<∞ if and only if the rank is at least two. Finally, we obtain a superrigidity result for actions of irreducible lattices in products of general groups on superreflexive spaces. Bader partially supported by ISF grant 100146; Furman partially supported by NSF grants DMS-0094245 and DMS-0604611; Gelander partially supported by NSF grant DMS-0404557 and BSF grant 2004010; Monod partially supported by FNS (CH) and NSF (US).     

Risk and quality control in a supply chain: competitive and collaborative approaches

This paper provides a quantitative and comparative economic and risk approach to strategic quality control in a supply chain, consisting of one supplier and one producer, using a random payoff game. Such a game is first solved in a risk-neutral framework by assuming that both parties are competing with each other. We show in this case that there may be an interior solution to the inspection game. A similar analysis under a collaborative framework is shown to be trivial and not practical, with a solution to the inspection game being an ‘all or nothing’ solution to one or both the parties involved. For these reasons, the sampling random payoff game is transformed into a Neyman–Pearson risk constraints game, where the parties minimize the expected costs subject to a set of Neyman–Pearson risk (type I and type II) constraints. In this case, the number of potential equilibria can be large. A number of such solutions are developed and a practical (convex) approach is suggested by providing an interior (partial sampling) solution for the collaborative case. Numerical examples are developed to demonstrate the procedure used. Thus, unlike theoretical approaches to the solution of strategic quality control random payoff games, the approach we construct is both practical and consistent with the statistical risk Neyman–Pearson approach.     

Controlling a bunch of multiple filaments by means of a beam diameter

We demonstrate a three orders of magnitude increase and stability in the backscattered fluorescence signal from nitrogen molecules by terawatt femtosecond laser pulse induced air filaments using a new method. The method is based on squeezing the initial beam diameter using a telescope. The effect of laser shot-to-shot fluctuations was included in numerical simulations by a random distribution of the initial intensity in both squeezed and non-squeezed beams. Statistical processing of the simulation results shows that the average diameter of plasma channels as well as the total amount of free electrons generated in a bunch of multiple filaments in air is larger in the squeezed beam. Shot-to-shot stability of the simulated plasma density increases in the squeezed beam. The change of this plasma density with propagation distance is in good qualitative agreement with the change of the range-corrected nitrogen fluorescence signal with distance. PACS 42.65.Jx; 42.60.Jf; 42.68.Ay; 42.68.Wt