Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Structural hierarchy of rock masses and the mechanisms of its formation

The formation mechanisms for the structural hierarchy in geological media are discussed. It is shown that the formation of such a hierarchy is caused by certain external and internal circumstances. The first ones consist in the fact that, because of external actions, the Earth’s poles continuously execute the translational and rotational motions responsible for a regular structure of rock fracture and for the appearance of the scale factor √2. The second ones consist in the fact that, under the action of many random factors and because of external actions, during the formation of geological media there appear dissipative structures and, hence, some self-similar fractal structures are formed.     

Reply to Nathan: How to reconstruct the causal argument

Nicholas Nathan tries to resist the current version of the causal argument for sense-data in two ways. First he suggests that, on what he considers to be the correct re-construction of the argument, it equivocates on the sense of proximate cause. Second he defends a form of disjunctivism, by claiming that there might be an extra mechanism involved in producing veridical hallucination, that is not present in perception. I argue that Nathan’s reconstruction of the argument is not the appropriate one, and that, properly interpreted, the argument does not equivocate on proximate cause. Furthermore, I claim that his postulation of a modified mechanism for hallucinations is implausibly ad hoc.     

Dependence of the kinetics of the anionic polymerization of methyl methacrylate on the concentration in active centers

Studies on the anionic polymerization of methyl methacrylate in tetrahydrofuran and in the presence of sparteine have revealed a beneficial effect due to this additive, resulting in a decrease in the extent of termination. Better control of the definition of the polymers formed can thus be achieved in the presence of this additive. On the other hand, macromolecular engineering requires a range of active species concentrations lower than 10^?3 mol L^?1 and particularly the synthesis of polymers of high molar masses. For a better understanding of the mechanism of chain growth under such concentration conditions, the kinetics of polymerization have been investigated with a technique based on adiabatic calorimetry. Sparteine has been found to lack sufficient cation‐binding power to prevent the propagating enolate ion pairs from aggregating. The rate constant of propagation of nonaggregated species has been estimated, as well as the aggregation constant of equilibrium. For very low initiator concentrations, termination reactions have been shown to profoundly alter the control of the polymerization and to prevent a quantitative monomer conversion. Theoretical maximal conversions have been calculated from kinetic data and compare well with the experimental values. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 42: 4964–4975, 2004