Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Study of the charge-exchange reactions\pi ^ - p \to (\pi ^0 ,\eta ,\eta \prime )n at 63 GeV

Muon electron pairs were detected in an Al multiplate spark chamber, exposed to a neutrino beam from the CERN PS. The leptons were not accompanied by other particles, except occasionally by protons. The background came mainly from muon associated π⁰ production, with one decay gamma lost. It was determined empirically, together with the small contribution from υ _e reactions. For electron energies above 2 GeV the background is 5.7±1.5 events, whereas 18 (μe)-candidates have been observed. Hence the effect is established, with a rate of about 10^?4 as compared to the muonic reactions above 3 GeV. Charm creation as the origin of this (μe)-production process is excluded; heavy neutral lepton production does not fit the kinematics observed. Instead the events are compatible with the two-body decay of an object with variable invariant mass of order 1 GeV, possibly resulting from axion interactions.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.