87.
Let
Y =
m(
X) +
ε be a regression model with a dichotomous output
Y and a one‐step regression function
m . In the literature, estimators for the three parameters of
m , that is, the breakpoint
θ and the levels
a and
b , are proposed for independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) observations. We show that these standard estimators also work in a non‐i.i.d. framework, that is, that they are strongly consistent under mild conditions. For that purpose, we use a linear one‐factor model for the input
X and a Bernoulli mixture model for the output
Y . The estimators for the split point and the risk levels are applied to a problem arising in credit rating systems. In particular, we divide the range of individuals' creditworthiness into two groups. The first group has a higher probability of default and the second group has a lower one. We also stress connections between the standard estimator for the cutoff
θ and concepts prevalent in credit risk modeling, for example, receiver operating characteristic. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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