A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naïve forecasts

In forecast value added analysis, the accuracy of relatively sophisticated forecasting methods is compared to that of naïve 1 forecasts to see whether the extra costs and effort of implementing them are justified. In this note, we derive a ratio that indicates the upper bound of a forecasting method’s accuracy relative to naïve 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure one-period-ahead accuracy. The ratio is applicable when a series is stationary or when its first differences are stationary. Formulae for the ratio are presented for several exemplar time series processes.     

Pressure-Induced Polymerization of Acetylene: Structure-Directed Stereoselectivity and a Possible Route to Graphane

Geometric isomerism in polyacetylene is a basic concept in chemistry textbooks. Polymerization to cis-isomer is kinetically preferred at low temperature, not only in the classic catalytic reaction in solution but also, unexpectedly, in the crystalline phase when it is driven by external pressure without a catalyst. Until now, no perfect reaction route has been proposed for this pressure-induced polymerization. Using in situ neutron diffraction and meta-dynamic simulation, we discovered that under high pressure, acetylene molecules react along a specific crystallographic direction that is perpendicular to those previously proposed. Following this route produces a pure cis-isomer and more surprisingly, predicts that graphane is the final product. Experimentally, polycyclic polymers with a layered structure were identified in the recovered product by solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance and neutron pair distribution functions, which indicates the possibility of synthesizing graphane under high pressure.     

Asymmetric halo-Mannich-type reaction provides access to pyrrolidines and beta-proline derivatives

[reaction: see text] A new halo-Mannich-type reaction is reported using cyclopropyl carbonyl-derived enolates and sulfonyl-protected imines. Chiral oxazolidinones auxiliaries were found to be effective for completely controlling the stereochemistry of the products. Variations in the oxazolidinone, protecting group, and imine components show this to be a quite general reaction. The initial iodo-Mannich products were found to be readily cyclized in the presence of triethylamine to afford the resulting protected pyrrolidines, which could be readily deprotected under standard conditions.     

Crystal structure of two lipophilic antifolates: 2,4-diamino-5-(n-hexyl)-6-methylpyrimidine and 2,4-diamino-5-(n-heptyl)-6-methylpyrimidine ethanesulfonate

The 5-hexyl (I) and the 5-heptyl (II) analogs of 2,4-diamino-6-methylpyrimidine both crystallize in the space groupP2₁/c withZ=4. Unit cell parameters of I are C₁₁H₂₀N₄·H₂O,a=17.204(3),b=4.609(9),c=16.765(2)Å,= 91.53(2)°; those of II are C₁₂H₂₃N₄ ⁺·C₂H₅SO₃ ^–,a=12.489(1),b=16.702(2),c=8.9558(7)Å,=99.208(8)°. The molecular packing of I contains one water, while II forms a salt with ethanesulfonic acid. The alkyl chain of I adopts an alltrans conformation; in contrast, II has onegauche orientation between carbons 2 and 3 of heptyl. These are the first structural data on two alkyl lipophilic antifolates with antineoplastic activity.     

Pressure‐Induced Diels–Alder Reactions in C6H6‐C6F6 Cocrystal towards Graphane Structure

Pressure‐induced polymerization (PIP) of aromatics is a novel method for constructing sp³‐carbon frameworks, and nanothreads with diamond‐like structures were synthesized by compressing benzene and its derivatives. Here by compressing a benzene‐hexafluorobenzene cocrystal (CHCF), H‐F‐substituted graphane with a layered structure in the PIP product was identified. Based on the crystal structure determined from the in situ neutron diffraction and the intermediate products identified by gas chromatography‐mass spectrum, we found that at 20 GPa CHCF forms tilted columns with benzene and hexafluorobenzene stacked alternatively, and leads to a [4+2] polymer, which then transforms to short‐range ordered H‐F‐substituted graphane. The reaction process involves [4+2] Diels–Alder, retro‐Diels–Alder, and 1‐1′ coupling reactions, and the former is the key reaction in the PIP. These studies confirm the elemental reactions of PIP of CHCF for the first time, and provide insight into the PIP of aromatics.     

Pentafluoro(aryl)‐λ6‐tellanes and Tetrafluoro(aryl)(trifluoromethyl)‐λ6‐tellanes: From SF5 to the TeF5 and TeF4CF3 Groups

The TeF₅ group is significantly underexplored as a highly fluorinated substituent on an organic framework, despite it being a larger congener of the acclaimed SF₅ group. In fact, only one aryl‐TeF₅ compound (phenyl‐TeF₅) has been reported to date, synthesized using XeF₂. Our recently developed mild TCICA/KF approach to oxidative fluorination provides an affordable and scalable alternative to XeF₂. Using this method, we report a scope of extensively characterized aryl‐TeF₅ compounds, along with the first SC‐XRD data on this compound class. The methodology was also extended to the synthesis and structural study of heretofore unknown aryl‐TeF₄CF₃ compounds. Additionally, preliminary reactivity studies unveiled some inconsistencies with previous literature regarding phenyl‐TeF₅. Although our studies conclude that the arene‐based TeF₅ (and TeF₄CF₃) group is not quite as robust as the SF₅ group, we find that the TeF₅ group is more stable than previously thought, thus opening a door to explore new applications of this motif.     

Resolution-Enhanced Kendrick Mass Defect Analysis of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Fullerenes in the Diffusion Flame from a Butane Torch

A modified Kendrick Mass Defect (KMD) analysis was applied to the analysis of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and fullerenes in the diffusion flame from a handheld butane torch.

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