Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

FT-IR study on solvent effects in building blocks of bioactive compounds. V

3-Hydroxy-4-hydroxymethyl pyrrolidin-2-ones, easily prepared from the Baylis–Hillman adduct 1-ethyl-4-methyl-2-hydroxy-3-methylenebutanedioate, are useful intermediates in the synthesis of bioactive compounds. In order to understand the mechanism involved in this reaction, vibrational and Montecarlo molecular mechanics conformational analysis on 1-ethyl-4-methyl-2-hydroxy-3-methylenebutanedioate were carried out, confirming the existence of a low energy intramolecular H-bonded five-member ring.     

Thermal diffusion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains

We study the motion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains in the presence of dissipation and thermal fluctuations. We consider the continuum limit of the discrete system and apply an adiabatic perturbation theory which yields a system of stochastic integro-differential equations for the collective variables of the ansatz for the perturbed envelope soliton. We derive the Fokker-Planck equation of this system and search for a statistically equivalent system of Langevin equations, which shares the same Fokker-Planck equation. We undertake an analytical analysis of the Langevin system and derive an expression for the variance of the soliton position Var[x _s ] which predicts a stronger than linear time dependence of Var[x _s ] (superdiffusion). We compare these results with simulations for the discrete system and find they agree well. We refer to recent studies where the diffusion of pulse solitons were found to exhibit a superdiffusive behaviour on longer time scales.Received: 28 June 2004, Published online: 26 November 2004PACS: 05.10.Gg Stochastic analysis methods - 05.45.Yv Solitons - 05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion - 05.50. + q Lattice theory and statistics     

Electronic transport properties of bismuth nanobridges through silicon-nitride membranes

The electronic transport through nanostructured bismuth nanobridges has been investigated at low temperatures (T<2 K) and in magnetic fields B up to 8.5 T. The samples show reproducible resistance fluctuations as a function of B, superimposed on a large magnetoresistance of up to 50%. In addition, time-dependent resistance fluctuations in zero magnetic field demonstrate the presence of bistable scatterers in the constriction region of our samples, which are described by two-level systems. Their dynamics are shown to be sensitive to subtle modifications of the static scatterer configuration in their vicinity, which cannot be detected in the sample magnetofingerprint.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.