On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Mathematical modelling of the oxidation of nickel titanium alloys

A one-dimensional bulk reaction model for the oxidation of nickeltitanium is formulated, with preferential oxidation of titaniumbeing included. The modelling is directed at the better understandingof the dominant mechanisms involved in the oxidation processand their significance for the biocompatibility of the alloy.Two different regimes for the relative diffusivities of oxygenand the metals are investigated. By assuming fast bulk reactions,different asymptotic structures emerge in different parameterregimes and the resulting models take the form of moving boundaryproblems. Different profiles of nickel concentration are obtained:in particular a nickel-rich layer (observed in practice) ispresent below the oxide/metal interface for the case when oxygenand the metals diffuse at comparable rates.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Exciton Molecules in Quantum Wells: Influence of the Well Width Fluctuations

The influence of the well width fluctuations on the dependence of the binding energy of excitonic complexes in quantum wells is studied by using the path-integral Monte-Carlo technique. The results are compared with available experimental data and a good agreement is found.Postdoctoral researcher of FWO-Vlaanderen     

The “corset effect” of spin-lattice relaxation in polymer melts confined in nanoporous media

Linear polyethylene oxides with molecular weightsM _w of 1665 and 10170 confined in pores with variable diameters in a solid methacrylate matrix were studied by proton field-cycling nuclear magnetic resonance relaxometry. The pore diameter was varied in the range of 9–57 nm. In all cases, the spin-lattice relaxation time shows a frequency dependence close toT ₁∞ v^3/4 in the range ofv=3·10^?1-2·10¹ MHz as predicted by the tube-reptation model. This protonT ₁ dispersion essentially reproduces that found in a previous deuteron study (R. Kimmich, R.-O. Seitter, U. Beginn, M. Möller, N. Fatkullin: Chem. Phys. Lett. 307, 147, 1999). As a feature particularly characteristic for reptation, this finding suggests that reptation is the dominating chain dynamics mechanism under pore confinement in the corresponding time range. The absolute values of the spin-lattice relaxation times indicate that the diameter of the effective tubes in which reptation occurs is much smaller than the pore diameters on the time scale of spin-lattice relaxation experimens. An estimation leads to a valued ^*～0.5 nm. The impenetrability of the solid pore walls, the uncrossability of polymer chains (“excluded volume”) and the low value of the compressibility in polymer melts create the “corset effect” which reduces the lateral motions of polymer chains to a microscopic scale of only a few tenths of a nanometer.     

Anionic iron(II) alkoxides as initiators for the controlled ring‐opening polymerization of lactide

Hetero‐bimetallic Fe(II) alkoxide/aryloxides were evaluated as initiators for the ring‐opening polymerization of rac‐lactide. [(THF)NaFe(O^tBu)₃]₂ ( 1 ) and [(THF)₄Na₂Fe(2,6‐diisopropylphenolate)₄] ( 2 ) (THF = tetrahydrofuran) both polymerized lactide efficiently at room temperature, with complex 1 affording better control over the molecular weight parameters of the resultant polymer. At conversions below 70%, a linear increase in molecular weight with conversion was observed, indicative of a well‐controlled polymerization process. Complex 2 is the first example of a dianionic Fe(II) alkoxide and has been structurally characterized to reveal a distorted square planar FeO₄ array in which both Na counterions bridge two aryloxide ligands and are further complexed by two THF ligands. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 3798–3803, 2003     

Förster energy transfer from poly(arylene–ethynylene)s to an erbium–porphyrin complex

We study the infrared emission at 1.54 μm of an organolanthanide complex, Er(III)-tetraphenylporphyrin [Er(TPP)acac], both as a result of direct optical excitation and via energy transfer from host π-conjugate polymers of type poly(arylene–ethynylene) [PAE]. In the first case, the emission of the neat complex is characterized in inert transparent materials and a value of the quantum yield at 1.54 μm φ_IR=4×10⁻⁴ is measured. Then, fluorescence resonance transfer is investigated in blends of Er(TPP)acac with PAEs by monitoring the quenching of the polymer fluorescence along with the enhancement of both the visible emission of the ligand and the near-infrared band of Er³⁺. These different procedures allow a detailed analysis of the transfer efficiency within a specific implementation of the Förster model for polymeric donors. The experimental values of the critical radius R₀, ranging from 1.3 to 2.5 nm for the different blends, are in good agreement with theory for a wide interval of the physical and spectroscopic parameters. This suggests that other mechanisms for excitation transfer do not play a significant role in these materials.     

cos πρ theorems for δ-subharmonic functions

For ϕ a δ-subharmonic function, sharp results are obtained that connectA(r, ϕ), B(r, ϕ) andT(r, ϕ), whereA(r, ϕ)=inf_|z|=r ϕ(z),B(r, ϕ)=sup_|z|=r ϕ(z), andT(r, ϕ) is the Nevanlinna characteristics.