Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Sufficiency in Quantum Statistical Inference

This paper attempts to develop a theory of sufficiency in the setting of non-commutative algebras parallel to the ideas in classical mathematical statistics. Sufficiency of a coarse-graining means that all information is extracted about the mutual relation of a given family of states. In the paper sufficient coarse-grainings are characterized in several equivalent ways and the non-commutative analogue of the factorization theorem is obtained. As an application we discuss exponential families. Our factorization theorem also implies two further important results, previously known only in finite Hilbert space dimension, but proved here in generality: the Koashi-Imoto theorem on maps leaving a family of states invariant, and the characterization of the general form of states in the equality case of strong subadditivity. Supported by the EU Research Training Network Quantum Probability with Applications to Physics, Information Theory and Biology and Center of Excellence SAS Physics of Information I/2/2005. Supported by the Hungarian grant OTKA T032662     

On the geometry of infinite cyclic subgroups

In this paper we construct an example of a word metric on an infinite cyclic subgroup. This example shows that subexponential distortion does not obstruct non-trivial growth of connected radii. This answers a question of Gromov [6]. The constructed metric has other pathological properies. Specifically, its asymptotic cone depends on the choice of ultrafilter and scaling sequence. The work has been partially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation.