Benchmarking state-of-the-art classification algorithms for credit scoring

In this paper, we study the performance of various state-of-the-art classification algorithms applied to eight real-life credit scoring data sets. Some of the data sets originate from major Benelux and UK financial institutions. Different types of classifiers are evaluated and compared. Besides the well-known classification algorithms (eg logistic regression, discriminant analysis, k-nearest neighbour, neural networks and decision trees), this study also investigates the suitability and performance of some recently proposed, advanced kernel-based classification algorithms such as support vector machines and least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVMs). The performance is assessed using the classification accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Statistically significant performance differences are identified using the appropriate test statistics. It is found that both the LS-SVM and neural network classifiers yield a very good performance, but also simple classifiers such as logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis perform very well for credit scoring.     

Loading aircraft for military operations

In this paper, we describe an aircraft loading problem submitted by the French military agency (DGA) as part of a more general military airlift planning problem. It can be viewed as a kind of bi-dimensional bin-packing problem, with heterogeneous bins and several additional constraints. We introduce two-phase methods for solving this NP-hard problem. The first phase consists in building good initial solutions, thanks to two fast algorithms: a list-based heuristic and a loading pattern generation method. Both algorithms call a constraint-based subroutine, able to determine quickly if the items already loaded can be reshuffled to accommodate a new object. The second phase improves these preliminary solutions using local search techniques. Results obtained on real data sets are presented.     

Synchronization in supply chains: implications for design and management

Supply chain management literature calls for coordination between the different members of the chain. Materials should be moved from one supplier to the next according to a just-in-time schedule. In this paper, we show that for many supply chain configurations, complete synchronization will result in some members of the chain being ‘losers’ in terms of cost. We develop an algorithm for optimal synchronization of supply chains and provide some guidelines for incentive alignment along the supply chain. In developing the model, we use the economic delivery and scheduling problem model and analyze supply chains dealing with single and multiple components. For single-component supply chains, we derive a closed-form expression for the optimal synchronized cycle time. For multi-component supply chains, we develop an algorithm for finding the optimal synchronized cycle time. We test the performance of the algorithm and show that it provides optimal solutions for a wide range of problems. We illustrate the models with numerical examples.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Cost–benefit modelling for reliability growth

Decisions during the reliability growth development process of engineering equipment involve trade-offs between cost and risk. However slight, there exists a chance an item of equipment will not function as planned during its specified life. Consequently the producer can incur a financial penalty. To date, reliability growth research has focussed on the development of models to estimate the rate of failure from test data. Such models are used to support decisions about the effectiveness of options to improve reliability. The extension of reliability growth models to incorporate financial costs associated with ‘unreliability’ is much neglected. In this paper, we extend a Bayesian reliability growth model to include cost analysis. The rationale of the stochastic process underpinning the growth model and the cost structures are described. The ways in which this model can be used to support cost–benefit analysis during product development are discussed and illustrated through a simple case.     

A nonlinear programming algorithm for solving semidefinite programs via low-rank factorization

 In this paper, we present a nonlinear programming algorithm for solving semidefinite programs (SDPs) in standard form. The algorithm's distinguishing feature is a change of variables that replaces the symmetric, positive semidefinite variable X of the SDP with a rectangular variable R according to the factorization X=RR ^T . The rank of the factorization, i.e., the number of columns of R, is chosen minimally so as to enhance computational speed while maintaining equivalence with the SDP. Fundamental results concerning the convergence of the algorithm are derived, and encouraging computational results on some large-scale test problems are also presented. Received: March 22, 2001 / Accepted: August 30, 2002 Published online: December 9, 2002 Key Words. semidefinite programming – low-rank factorization – nonlinear programming – augmented Lagrangian – limited memory BFGS This research was supported in part by the National Science Foundation under grants CCR-9902010, INT-9910084, CCR-0203426 and CCR-0203113     

On characterization of Poisson and Jacobi structures

We characterize Poisson and Jacobi structures by means of complete lifts of the corresponding tensors: the lifts have to be related to canonical structures by morphisms of corresponding vector bundles. Similar results hold for generalized Poisson and Jacobi structures (canonical structures) associated with Lie algebroids and Jacobi algebroids.     

Lower bounds for densities of uniformly elliptic random variables on Wiener space

 In this article, we generalize the lower bound estimates for uniformly elliptic diffusion processes obtained by Kusuoka and Stroock. We define the concept of uniform elliptic random variable on Wiener space and show that with this definition one can prove a lower bound estimate of Gaussian type for its density. We apply our results to the case of the stochastic heat equation under the hypothesis of unifom ellipticity of the diffusion coefficient. Received: 6 November 2001 / Revised version: 27 February 2003 / Published online: 12 May 2003 Key words or phrases: Malliavin Calculus – Density estimates – Aronson estimates