When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Förster energy transfer from poly(arylene–ethynylene)s to an erbium–porphyrin complex

We study the infrared emission at 1.54 μm of an organolanthanide complex, Er(III)-tetraphenylporphyrin [Er(TPP)acac], both as a result of direct optical excitation and via energy transfer from host π-conjugate polymers of type poly(arylene–ethynylene) [PAE]. In the first case, the emission of the neat complex is characterized in inert transparent materials and a value of the quantum yield at 1.54 μm φ_IR=4×10⁻⁴ is measured. Then, fluorescence resonance transfer is investigated in blends of Er(TPP)acac with PAEs by monitoring the quenching of the polymer fluorescence along with the enhancement of both the visible emission of the ligand and the near-infrared band of Er³⁺. These different procedures allow a detailed analysis of the transfer efficiency within a specific implementation of the Förster model for polymeric donors. The experimental values of the critical radius R₀, ranging from 1.3 to 2.5 nm for the different blends, are in good agreement with theory for a wide interval of the physical and spectroscopic parameters. This suggests that other mechanisms for excitation transfer do not play a significant role in these materials.     

Sulfobetaine‐containing diblock and triblock copolymers via reversible addition‐fragmentation chain transfer polymerization in aqueous media

A novel bifunctional acrylamido‐based reversible addition–fragmentation chain transfer (RAFT) chain‐transfer agent (CTA), N,N′‐ethylenebis[2‐(thiobenzoylthio)propionamide] (CTA2), has been synthesized and used for the controlled free‐radical polymerization of N,N‐dimethylacrylamide (DMA). A comparative study of CTA2 and the monofunctional CTA N,N‐dimethyl‐s‐thiobenzoylthiopropionamide (CTA1) has been conducted. Polymerizations mediated by CTA1 result in poly(N,N‐dimethylacrylamide) (PDMA) homopolymers with unimodal molecular weight distributions, whereas CTA2 yields unimodal, bimodal, and trimodal distributions according to the extent of conversion. The multimodal nature of the PDMAs has been attributed to termination events and/or chains initiated by primary radicals. The RAFT polymerization of DMA with CTA2 also results in a prolonged induction period that may be attributed to the higher local concentration of dithioester functionalities early in the polymerization. A series of ω‐ and α,ω‐dithioester‐capped PDMAs have been prepared in organic media and subsequently employed as macro‐CTAs for the synthesis of diblock and triblock copolymers in aqueous media with the zwitterionic monomer 3‐[2‐(N‐methylacrylamido)‐ethyldimethylammonio] propane sulfonate (MAEDAPS). Additionally, an ω‐dithioester‐capped MAEDAPS homopolymer has been used as a macro‐CTA for the block polymerization of DMA. To our knowledge, this is the first example of a near‐monodisperse, sulfobetaine‐containing block copolymer prepared entirely in aqueous media. The diblock and triblock copolymers form aggregates in pure water that can be dissociated by the addition of salt, as determined by ¹H NMR spectroscopy and dynamic light scattering. In pure water, highly uniform, micellelike aggregates with hydrodynamic diameters of 71–93 nm are formed. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 1262–1281, 2003     

Lein?l, Lein?lfirniss und Oelfarben

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

On a Result of R. Turner

We study the similarity of perturbed compact operators to operators of block-diagonal structure with respect to some family of orthogonal projection operators, which allows us to refine and essentially strengthen results due to R. Turner. We obtain information about the operator realizing the similarity transformation, present estimates for the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the perturbed operator, and also study the inverse problem of spectral analysis.