Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

四角晶相HfO2(001)表面原子和电子结构研究

采用基于第一性原理的密度泛函理论研究了四角晶相二氧化铪(t-HfO₂)体相及 其(001)表面的原子几何与电子结构.理论计算结果表明，t-HfO₂(001)表面不会 产生重构现象.与体相电子结构相比, t-HfO₂(001)表面态密度明显高于体相态 密度.其次，表面原子的态密度更靠近费米能级(E_F)，价带往低能量处移动，并 有表面态产生.计算结果表明了t-HfO₂表面禁带宽度明显低于体相的禁带宽度. t-HfO₂(001)的表面态产生以及表面禁带宽度减小是由于Hf原子与O原子的配位 数减少，表面原子周围的环境发生变化而引起的. 关键词： 密度泛函理论 2(001)')" href="#">t-HfO₂(001) 表面电子结构     

Ag+掺杂的立方相Y2O3:Eu纳米晶体粉末发光强度研究

采用化学自燃烧法制备了不同Ag⁺掺杂浓度的Y₂O₃:Eu纳米晶体粉末样品(［Y³⁺］∶［Eu³⁺］∶［Ag⁺］=99∶1∶X，X=0—3.5×10^-2)，以及通过退火处理得到了相应的体材料.根据X射线衍射谱确定所得纳米和体材料样品均为纯立方相.实验表明在纳米尺寸样品中随着Ag离子浓度的增加，荧光发射强度随之增加，当X=2×10^-2时达到最大值，其发光强度比X=0时提高了近50%.当Ag离子浓度继续增加，样品发光强度保持不变.在相应的体材料样品中则没有观察到此现象.通过对各样品的发射光谱，激发光谱，X射线衍射图谱，透射电镜(TEM)照片和荧光衰减曲线的研究，分析了引起纳米样品荧光强度变化的原因是由于Ag离子与表面悬键氧结合，从而使这一无辐射通道阻断，使发光中心Eu³⁺的量子效率提高；Ag⁺的引入所带来的另一个效应是使激发更为有效.这两方面原因使发光效率得到了提高.     

Yb3+掺杂KY(WO4)2激光晶体生长、结构与光谱分析

采用顶部籽晶提拉法(TSSG)生长出Yb:KY(WO₄)₂(Yb:KYW)激光晶体.对预烧后的原料及晶体进行了XRD分析，结果表明，分别在920℃和600℃预烧8h后的熔质和助熔剂基本上形成一相，抑止了实验中的挥发问题；所生长的晶体为β-Yb:KYW，计算其晶格常数为a=1.063nm，b=1.034nm，c=0.755nm，β=130.75°.测得不同厚度样品的吸收光谱，结果表明样品在933nm和981nm有较强的吸收峰，计算出主峰981nm的吸收截面σ关键词： Yb:KYW TSSG法 晶体结构 光谱参数     

共沉淀法制备Y_2O_2S∶Eu~(3+),Mg~(2+),Ti~(4+)红色长余辉材料

用共沉淀法制备了Y2O2S∶Eu3 ,Mg2 ,Ti4 红色长余辉材料。测量了材料的电子显微形貌、晶体结构和发射光谱。通过与固相法制备的Y2O2S∶Eu3 ,Mg2 ,Ti4 长余辉材料比较,发现两种方法都可以制备粒度基本相同的纯相Y2O2S基质晶体,但共沉淀法样品的颗粒结构更松散。研究了Eu3 浓度对两种方法制备样品的谱线发射强度的影响,通过比较共沉淀法和高温固相法制备的样品中Eu3 的5D1→7F3较高能级跃迁的587.6 nm谱线强度随Eu3 浓度的变化,发现共沉淀法更有利于Eu3 均匀进入Y2O2S基质晶格而形成有效的发光中心。     

应力对M-Z型InP/InGaAsP-EAM偏振

采用Agilent 81910A光子全参量测试仪,首次实验研究了InP/In1－xGaxAs1－yPy-MQW（Multiple-Quantum-Well,MQW）材料与衬底间因应力而产生的M-Z型光调制器的PDL影响以及由此引起的由差分群时延(Differential Group Delay,DGD)表征的偏振模色散(Polarization Mode Dispersion,PMD).研究结果表明,半导体MQW光调制器的PDL与DGD是一致的.因此在半导体光器件的制作过程中,应尽可能地减小衬底与波导芯层之间的因残存应力的存在造成对光器件的高速性能的不利影响.     

机载稳瞄控制系统模型及仿真分析

瞄准线高精度稳定是机载光电稳瞄系统的主要指标和关键技术。根据四框架稳瞄系统的工作原理，以手动跟踪模式为主要研究对象，建立了稳瞄伺服控制系统模型。考虑到直升机扰动特点，对线扰动、角速率扰动、摩擦力矩、弹性力矩等各种扰动因素也建立相应的数学模型，同时在各种扰动因素作用下利用Matlab对机载高精度稳瞄系统的手动跟踪控制模式进行了仿真设计分析和理论研究，设计出适合的控制器。此模型在实际系统中获得验证，对稳瞄伺服控制系统的设计具有参考意义。     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

一类多维指数分布的参数估计

考虑生存函数为(F)(x1,x2,…,xn)=P{X1＞x1,…,Xn＞xn}=exp{-[n∑i=1(xi/θi)1/δ]δ}(0＜xi＜∞,0＜δ≤ 1,0＜θi＜∞,i=(1,n))的一类多维指数分布,给出了它的密度函数的表示式,并讨论了它的性质.提出了相关参数δ的估计(^δ),证明了(^δ)有相合性和渐近正态性,得到了(^δ)的渐近方差σ2δ.最后还给出了若干随机模拟的结果.