When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Mathematical modelling of the oxidation of nickel titanium alloys

A one-dimensional bulk reaction model for the oxidation of nickeltitanium is formulated, with preferential oxidation of titaniumbeing included. The modelling is directed at the better understandingof the dominant mechanisms involved in the oxidation processand their significance for the biocompatibility of the alloy.Two different regimes for the relative diffusivities of oxygenand the metals are investigated. By assuming fast bulk reactions,different asymptotic structures emerge in different parameterregimes and the resulting models take the form of moving boundaryproblems. Different profiles of nickel concentration are obtained:in particular a nickel-rich layer (observed in practice) ispresent below the oxide/metal interface for the case when oxygenand the metals diffuse at comparable rates.     

Crystallographic report: catena‐Aqua(2,2′‐bipyrimidine)lithium(I) perchlorate

A lithium(I) coordination polymer has been formed from LiClO₄ and the 2,2′‐bipyrimidine (bpym) ligand in which each square pyramidal lithium(I) atom is coordinated in the basal plane by four nitrogen donor atoms derived from two bpym ligands and one water molecule at the apical position. These are connected into a layer structure via hydrogen‐bonding interactions involving the perchlorate anions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Jensen's inequality for g-expectation: part 1

Briand et al. (Electron. Comm. Probab. 5 (2000) 101–117) gave a counterexample and proposition to show that given g,g-expectations usually do not satisfy Jensen's inequality for most of convex functions. This yields a natural question, under which conditions on g, do g-expectations satisfy Jensen's inequality for convex functions? In this paper, we shall deal with this question in the case that g is convex and give a necessary and sufficient condition on g under which Jensen's inequality holds for convex functions. To cite this article: Z. Chen et al., C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 337 (2003).     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

Synthesis and characterization of a polyfluorene containing carbazole and oxadiazole dipolar pendent groups and its application to electroluminescent devices

We have synthesized a blue‐light‐emitting polyfluorene (PF) derivative ( PF‐CBZ‐OXD ) that presents bulky hole‐transporting carbazole and electron‐transporting oxadiazole pendent groups functionalized at the C‐9 positions of alternating fluorene units. The results from photoluminescence and electrochemical measurements indicate that both the side chains and the PF main chain retain their own electronic characteristics in the copolymer. An electroluminescent device incorporating this polymer as the emitting layer was turned on at 4.5 V; it exhibited a stable blue emission with a maximum external quantum efficiency of 1.1%. Moreover, we doped PF‐CBZ‐OXD and its analogue PF‐TPA‐OXD with a red‐light‐emitting iridium phosphor for use as components of phosphorescent red‐light emitters to investigate the effect of the host's HOMO energy level on the degree of charge trapping and on the electrophosphorescent efficiency. We found that spectral overlap and individual energy level matching between the host and guest were both crucial features affecting the performance of the electroluminescence devices. Atomic force microscopy measurements indicated that the dipolar nature of PF‐CBZ‐OXD , in contrast to the general nonpolarity of polydialkylfluorenes, provided a stabilizing environment that allowed homogeneous dispersion of the polar iridium triplet dopant. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 2925–2937, 2007     

cos πρ theorems for δ-subharmonic functions

For ϕ a δ-subharmonic function, sharp results are obtained that connectA(r, ϕ), B(r, ϕ) andT(r, ϕ), whereA(r, ϕ)=inf_|z|=r ϕ(z),B(r, ϕ)=sup_|z|=r ϕ(z), andT(r, ϕ) is the Nevanlinna characteristics.