Construction algorithms for polynomial lattice rules for multivariate integration

We introduce a new construction algorithm for digital nets for integration in certain weighted tensor product Hilbert spaces. The first weighted Hilbert space we consider is based on Walsh functions. Dick and Pillichshammer calculated the worst-case error for integration using digital nets for this space. Here we extend this result to a special construction method for digital nets based on polynomials over finite fields. This result allows us to find polynomials which yield a small worst-case error by computer search. We prove an upper bound on the worst-case error for digital nets obtained by such a search algorithm which shows that the convergence rate is best possible and that strong tractability holds under some condition on the weights.

We extend the results for the weighted Hilbert space based on Walsh functions to weighted Sobolev spaces. In this case we use randomly digitally shifted digital nets. The construction principle is the same as before, only the worst-case error is slightly different. Again digital nets obtained from our search algorithm yield a worst-case error achieving the optimal rate of convergence and as before strong tractability holds under some condition on the weights. These results show that such a construction of digital nets yields the until now best known results of this kind and that our construction methods are comparable to the construction methods known for lattice rules.

We conclude the article with numerical results comparing the expected worst-case error for randomly digitally shifted digital nets with those for randomly shifted lattice rules.

     

Thermal diffusion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains

We study the motion of envelope solitons on anharmonic atomic chains in the presence of dissipation and thermal fluctuations. We consider the continuum limit of the discrete system and apply an adiabatic perturbation theory which yields a system of stochastic integro-differential equations for the collective variables of the ansatz for the perturbed envelope soliton. We derive the Fokker-Planck equation of this system and search for a statistically equivalent system of Langevin equations, which shares the same Fokker-Planck equation. We undertake an analytical analysis of the Langevin system and derive an expression for the variance of the soliton position Var[x _s ] which predicts a stronger than linear time dependence of Var[x _s ] (superdiffusion). We compare these results with simulations for the discrete system and find they agree well. We refer to recent studies where the diffusion of pulse solitons were found to exhibit a superdiffusive behaviour on longer time scales.Received: 28 June 2004, Published online: 26 November 2004PACS: 05.10.Gg Stochastic analysis methods - 05.45.Yv Solitons - 05.40.-a Fluctuation phenomena, random processes, noise, and Brownian motion - 05.50. + q Lattice theory and statistics     

Puzzles in astrophysics in the past and present

About 400 years have passed since the great discoveries by Galileo, Kepler, and Newton, but astronomy still remains an important source of discoveries in physics. They start with puzzles, with phenomena difficult to explain, and phenomena which in fact need new physics for explanation. Do such puzzles exist now? There are at least three candidates: absence of absorption of TeV gamma radiation in extragalactic space (violation of Lorentz invariance?), absence of GZK cutoff in the spectrum of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (new particle physics?), tremendous energy (up to 10⁵⁴ erg) released in gamma ray bursts on a time scale of a second (collapsing stars or sources of a new type?). Do these puzzles really exist? A critical review of these phenomena is given.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos

The thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos made up of hollow tubular Mg₃Si₂O₅(OH)₄ filaments is measured in the range 5–300 K. The paper discusses the possibility of using this material in studies of the thermal conductivity of thin filaments of metals and semiconductors incorporated into the channels of crystalline chrysotile asbestos tubes.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.