Study of an S-I epidemic model with nonlinear incidence rate: Discrete and stochastic version

Discrete and stochastic version of a susceptible-infective model system with nonlinear incidence rate is investigated. We observe that the discrete system converges to a unique equilibrium point for certain effective transmission rate of the disease and beyond which stability of the system is disturbed. Stochastic analysis suggests that the model system is globally asymptotically stable in probability for certain strengths of white noise. Numerical simulations are also performed to validate the results.     

Elastic wave propagation in sinusoidally corrugated waveguides

The ultrasonic wave propagation in sinusoidally corrugated waveguides is studied in this paper. Periodically corrugated waveguides are gaining popularity in the field of vibration control and for designing structures with desired acoustic band gaps. Currently only numerical method (Boundary Element Method or Finite Element Method) based packages (e.g., PZFlex) are in principle capable of modeling ultrasonic fields in complex structures with rapid change of curvatures at the interfaces and boundaries but no analyses have been reported. However, the packages are very CPU intensive; it requires a huge amount of computation memory and time for its execution. In this paper a new semi-analytical technique called Distributed Point Source Method (DPSM) is used to model the ultrasonic field in sinusoidally corrugated waveguides immersed in water where the interface curvature changes rapidly. DPSM results are compared with analytical solutions. It is found that when a narrow ultrasonic beam hits the corrugation peaks at an angle, the wave propagates in the backward direction in waveguides with high corrugation depth. However, in waveguides with small corrugation the wave propagates in the forward direction. The forward and backward propagation phenomenon is found to be independent of the signal frequency and depends on the degree of corrugation.     

Paradox of enrichment: A fractional differential approach with memory

The paradox of enrichment (PoE) proposed by Rosenzweig [M. Rosenzweig, The paradox of enrichment, Science 171 (1971) 385–387] is still a fundamental problem in ecology. Most of the solutions have been proposed at an individual species level of organization and solutions at community level are lacking. Knowledge of how learning and memory modify behavioral responses to species is a key factor in making a crucial link between species and community levels. PoE resolution via these two organizational levels can be interpreted as a microscopic- and macroscopic-level solution. Fractional derivatives provide an excellent tool for describing this memory and the hereditary properties of various materials and processes. The derivatives can be physically interpreted via two time scales that are considered simultaneously: the ideal, equably flowing homogeneous local time, and the cosmic (inhomogeneous) non-local time. Several mechanisms and theories have been proposed to resolve the PoE problem, but a universally accepted theory is still lacking because most studies have focused on local effects and ignored non-local effects, which capture memory. Here we formulate the fractional counterpart of the Rosenzweig model and analyze the stability behavior of a system. We conclude that there is a threshold for the memory effect parameter beyond which the Rosenzweig model is stable and may be used as a potential agent to resolve PoE from a new perspective via fractional differential equations.     

Stereodivergent Zweifel Olefination and its Mechanistic Dichotomy

Stereoselective Zweifel olefination using boronate complexes carrying two different reactive π-systems was achieved to synthesize vinyl heteroarenes and conjugated 1,3-dienes in good yield and up to 100 % stereoselectivity, which remains unexplored until now. Most importantly, we report the unprecedented formation of E vs. Z-vinyl heteroarenes for different heteroarenes under identical conditions. Density functional theory (DFT) investigations unveil the mechanistic dichotomy between olefin and heteroarene activation followed by 1,2-migration, leading to E or Z-vinyl heteroarenes respectively. We also report a previously unknown reversal of stereoselectivity by using 2,3-Dichloro-5,6-dicyano-1,4-benzoquinone (DDQ) as an electrophile. The Zweifel olefination using a boronate complex that carries two different olefins was previously unexplored due to significant challenges associated with the site-selective activation of olefins. We have solved this problem and reported the site-selective activation of olefins for the stereoselective synthesis of 1,3-dienes.     

A discrete time model for software reliability with application to a flight control software

This work is motivated by a particular software reliability problem in a unit of flight control software developed by the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), in which the testing of the software is carried out in multiple batches, each consisting of several runs. As the errors are found during the runs within a batch, they are noted, but not debugged immediately; they are debugged only at the end of that particular batch of runs. In this work, we introduce a discrete time model suitable for this type of periodic debugging schedule and describe maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. This model is used to estimate the reliability of the software. We also develop a method to determine the additional number of error‐free test runs required for the estimated reliability to achieve a specific target with some high probability. We analyze the test data on the flight control software of ISRO. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal harvesting and complex dynamics in a delayed eco-epidemiological model with weak Allee effects

In this article, an eco-epidemiological system with weak Allee effect and harvesting in prey population is discussed by a system of delay differential equations. The delay parameter regarding the time lag corresponds to the predator gestation period. Mathematical features such as uniform persistence, permanence, stability, Hopf bifurcation at the interior equilibrium point of the system is analyzed and verified by numerical simulations. Bistability between different equilibrium points is properly discussed. The chaotic behaviors of the system are recognized through bifurcation diagram, Poincare section and maximum Lyapunov exponent. Our simulation results suggest that for increasing the delay parameter, the system undergoes chaotic oscillation via period doubling. We also observe a quasi-periodicity route to chaos and complex dynamics with respect to Allee parameter; such behavior can be subdued by the strength of the Allee effect and harvesting effort through period-halving bifurcation. To find out the optimal harvesting policy for the time delay model, we consider the profit earned by harvesting of both the prey populations. The effect of Allee and gestation delay on optimal harvesting policy is also discussed.     

Bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution and associated inference

Univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution has been used quite effectively to model positively skewed data, especially lifetime data and crack growth data. In this paper, we introduce bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution which is an absolutely continuous distribution whose marginals are univariate Birnbaum–Saunders distributions. Different properties of this bivariate Birnbaum–Saunders distribution are then discussed. This new family has five unknown parameters and it is shown that the maximum likelihood estimators can be obtained by solving two non-linear equations. We also propose simple modified moment estimators for the unknown parameters which are explicit and can therefore be used effectively as an initial guess for the computation of the maximum likelihood estimators. We then present the asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimators and use them to construct confidence intervals for the parameters. We also discuss likelihood ratio tests for some hypotheses of interest. Monte Carlo simulations are then carried out to examine the performance of the proposed estimators. Finally, a numerical data analysis is performed in order to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Phase Transitions in Gravitational Allocation

Given a Poisson point process of unit masses (“stars”) in dimension d ≥ 3, Newtonian gravity partitions space into domains of attraction (cells) of equal volume. In earlier work, we showed the diameters of these cells have exponential tails. Here we analyze the quantitative geometry of the cells and show that their large deviations occur at the stretched-exponential scale. More precisely, the probability that mass exp(−R ^γ ) in a cell travels distance R decays like exp(-R^f_d(g)){\left(-R^{f_d(\gamma)}\right)} where we identify the functions f _d (·) exactly. These functions are piecewise smooth and the discontinuities of f^￠_d{f^{\prime}_d} represent phase transitions. In dimension d = 3, the large deviation is due to a “distant attracting galaxy” but a phase transition occurs when f ₃(γ) = 1 (at that point, the fluctuations due to individual stars dominate). When d ≥ 5, the large deviation is due to a thin tube (a “wormhole”) along which the star density increases monotonically, until the point f _d (γ) = 1 (where again fluctuations due to individual stars dominate). In dimension 4 we find a double phase transition, where the transition between low-dimensional behavior (attracting galaxy) and highdimensional behavior (wormhole) occurs at γ = 4/3.     

Bivariate generalized exponential distribution

Recently it has been observed that the generalized exponential distribution can be used quite effectively to analyze lifetime data in one dimension. The main aim of this paper is to define a bivariate generalized exponential distribution so that the marginals have generalized exponential distributions. It is observed that the joint probability density function, the joint cumulative distribution function and the joint survival distribution function can be expressed in compact forms. Several properties of this distribution have been discussed. We suggest to use the EM algorithm to compute the maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters and also obtain the observed and expected Fisher information matrices. One data set has been re-analyzed and it is observed that the bivariate generalized exponential distribution provides a better fit than the bivariate exponential distribution.