When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Asymptotic expansions for eigenvalues in the presence of small inhomogeneities

We provide a rigorous derivation of an asymptotic formula for perturbations in the eigenvalues caused by the presence of a finite number of inhomogeneities of small diameter with conductivity different from the background conductivity. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

A representation of the Belavkin equation via Feynman path integrals

 The Belavkin equation, describing the continuous measurement of the position of a quantum particle, is studied. A rigorous representation of its solution by means of an infinite dimensional oscillatory integral (Feynman path integral) defined on the complex Cameron-Martin space is given. Received: 7 January 2002 / Revised version: 20 June 2002 / Published online: 19 December 2002 Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 81, 81S40, 60H15 Key words or phrases: Belavkin equation – Continuous measurement – Quantum theory – Oscillatory integrals – Feynman path integrals     

Structure and properties of the mesophase of syndiotactic polystyrene. II. Effect of stepwise extraction on the preparation of the mesophase

In this study, a novel stepwise extraction method has been examined. The guest molecules housed between the helices of the clathrate δ form of syndiotactic polystyrene can be removed completely with this method. A systematic study of the preparation of a solvent‐free mesophase (emptied clathrate) membrane, its helical and residual solvent contents, and its structural transformations has been performed. In this first attempt, an enhancement in the TTGG helical content has been observed in the extracted membrane, and a conceptual mechanism is proposed. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 41: 269–273, 2003     

On the equivalence of linear equations under nonlocal transformation

Linear nth order (n?3) ordinary differential equations have been shown to possess n+1, n+2 or n+4 Lie point symmetries. Each class contains equations which are equivalent under point transformation. By taking the example of third order equations, we show that all linear equations are equivalent if the class of transformation is broadened to include nonlocal transformations and hence the representative of this class of equations is y⁽ⁿ⁾=0.     

Anionic iron(II) alkoxides as initiators for the controlled ring‐opening polymerization of lactide

Hetero‐bimetallic Fe(II) alkoxide/aryloxides were evaluated as initiators for the ring‐opening polymerization of rac‐lactide. [(THF)NaFe(O^tBu)₃]₂ ( 1 ) and [(THF)₄Na₂Fe(2,6‐diisopropylphenolate)₄] ( 2 ) (THF = tetrahydrofuran) both polymerized lactide efficiently at room temperature, with complex 1 affording better control over the molecular weight parameters of the resultant polymer. At conversions below 70%, a linear increase in molecular weight with conversion was observed, indicative of a well‐controlled polymerization process. Complex 2 is the first example of a dianionic Fe(II) alkoxide and has been structurally characterized to reveal a distorted square planar FeO₄ array in which both Na counterions bridge two aryloxide ligands and are further complexed by two THF ligands. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 3798–3803, 2003     

Numerical approximation of generalized Newtonian fluids using Powell–Sabin–Heindl elements: I. theoretical estimates

In this paper we consider the numerical approximation of steady and unsteady generalized Newtonian fluid flows using divergence free finite elements generated by the Powell–Sabin–Heindl elements. We derive a priori and a posteriori finite element error estimates and prove convergence of the method of successive approximations for the steady flow case. A priori error estimates of unsteady flows are also considered. These results provide a theoretical foundation and supporting numerical studies are to be provided in Part II. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.