K X-ray production cross sections for 40-180 keV protons

Considering the importance of the X-ray production cross sections for the determination of the element concentrations in a given material, we have measured them experimentally for Al Si, Sc, Ti, V, Fe, Co, Ni and Cu bombarded by protons with energies ranging from 40 to 180 keV. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

A WKB analysis of the buckling condition for a cylindrical shell of arbitrary thickness subjected to an external pressure

We consider the plane-strain buckling of a cylindrical shellof arbitrary thickness which is made of a Varga material andis subjected to an external hydrostatic pressure on its outersurface. The WKB method is used to solve the eigenvalue problemthat results from the linear bifurcation analysis. We show thatthe circular cross-section buckles into a non-circular shapeat a value of µ₁ which depends on A₁/A₂ and a mode number,where A₁ and A₂ are the undeformed inner and outer radii, andµ₁ is the ratio of the deformed inner radius to A₁. Inthe large mode number limit, we find that the dependence ofµ₁ on A₁/A₂ has a boundary layer structure: it is constantover almost the entire region of 0 < A₁/A₂ < 1 and decreasessharply from this constant value to unity as A₁/A₂ tends tounity. Our asymptotic results for A₁ – 1 = O(1) and A₁– 1 = O(1/n) are shown to agree with the numerical resultsobtained by using the compound matrix method.     

Structure of solid monolayers and multilayers of n -hexane on graphite

We present all-atom molecular dynamics simulations ofn-hexane on the basal plane of graphite at monolayer and multilayer coverages. In keeping with experimental data, we find the presence of ordered adsorbed layers both at single monolayer coverage and when the adsorbed layer coexists with excess liquid adsorbate. Using a simulation method that does not impose any particular periodicity on the adsorbed layer, we quantitatively compare our results to the results of neutron diffraction experiments and find a structural transition from a uniaxially incommensurate lattice to a fully commensurate structure on increasing the coverage from a monolayer to a multilayer. The zig-zag backbone planes of all the alkane molecules lie parallel to the graphite surface at the multilayer coverage, while a few molecules are observed to attain the perpendicular orientation at monolayer coverage. Dedicated to Professor C N R Rao on his 70th birthday     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.