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A Bayesian approach is used to analyze the seismic events with magnitudes at least 4.7 on Taiwan. Following the idea proposed by Ogata (1988,Journal of the American Statistical Association,83, 9–27), an epidemic model for the process of occurrence times given the observed magnitude values is considered, incorporated with gamma prior distributions for the parameters in the model, while the hyper-parameters of the prior are essentially determined by the seismic data in an earlier period. Bayesian inference is made on the conditional intensity function via Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The results yield acceptable accuracies in predicting large earthquake events within short time periods.  相似文献   
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Data on the spatial distribution of radionuclides (241Am, 239Pu, 137Cs and 152Eu) formed during nuclear explosions of different types near P2 SNTS test site are presented. Radionuclide contamination induced by the explosions varies in the concentrations of individual radionuclides, their proportions and species. Examination of the variations is a crucial task to plan remediation activities as well as those aimed at decrease of radiation risk for population and prevention of repeated contamination. Concentrations of 241Am and 239+240Pu that are the most toxic radionuclides in the area lie in hundred thousands of Bqkg?1. The most contaminated areas are classified by the radionuclide concentration, ratio and form present in soil.  相似文献   
949.
We present a few estimates of energy densities reached in heavy-ion collisions at the CERN SPS. The estimates are based on data and models of proton-nucleus and nucleus-nucleus interactions. In all of these estimates the maximum energy density in central Pb+Pb interactions is larger than the critical energy density GeV/fm3 following from lattice gauge theory computations. In estimates which we consider as realistic the maximum energy density is about . In this way our analysis gives some support to claims that deconfined matter has been produced at the CERN SPS. Any definite statement requires a deeper understanding of formation times of partons and hadrons in nuclear collisions. We also compare our results with implicit energy estimates contained in earlier models of anomalous suppression in nuclear collisions. Received: 3 February 2003 / Revised version: 5 March 2003 / Published online: 5 May 2003  相似文献   
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A search for sleptons, neutralinos, charginos, sgoldstinos and heavy stable charged sleptons in the context of scenarios where the lightest supersymmetric particle is the gravitino, is presented. Data collected during 2000 with the DELPHI detector at centre-of-mass energies from 204 to 208 GeV were analysed and combined with all the data collected from 1995 to 1999 at lower energies. No evidence for the production of sleptons, neutralinos and charginos has been found, therefore new limits on the mass of these supersymmetric particles and on the model parameter space are set. The search for heavy stable charged sleptons also updates the stable sleptons mass limit. The absence of evidence for sgoldstino production allows limits to be set on its mass and on the scale of supersymmetry breaking. Received: 6 November 2002 / Published online: 14 February 2003  相似文献   
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