Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Quantum-well states and resonances in thin single-crystal layers of noble metals on W(110) substrates

This paper reports on the first experimental observation of quantum-well states and sp-type resonances in thin single-crystal gold, silver, and copper layers formed on single-crystal W(110) surfaces, which result from spatial localization of Bloch-type electronic wave functions in a quantum well with potential barriers at the vacuum/metal and metal/W(110) interfaces. The quantization of the valence-band electronic structure in Au/W(110), Ag/W(110), and Cu/W(110) systems was studied experimentally using angle-resolved photoelectron spectroscopy.     

To the problem of the vector and axial-vector dominance of weak interactions

The problem of the vector and axial-vector dominance of weak interactions within the framework of the quark model of superconductivity type is discussed.     

A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.