Preliminary research on the relationship between long-range correlations and predictability

By establishing the Markov model for a long-range correlated time series (LRCS) and analysing its evolutionary characteristics, this paper defines a physical effective correlation length (ECL) τ, which reflects the predictability of the LRCS. It also finds that the ECL has a better power law relation with the long-range correlated exponent γ of the LRCS: τ= Kexp (-γ/0.3)+Y, (0 < γ < 1) -- the predictability of the LRCS decays exponentially with the increase of γ. It is then applied to a daily maximum temperature series (DMTS) recorded at 740 stations in China between the years 1960--2005 and calculates the ECL of the DMTS. The results show the remarkable regional distributive feature that the ECL is about 10--14 days in west, northwest and northern China, and about 5--10 days in east, southeast and southern China. Namely, the predictability of the DMTS is higher in central-west China than in east and southeast China. In addition, the ECL is reduced by 1--8 days in most areas of China after subtracting the seasonal oscillation signal of the DMTS from its original DMTS; however, it is only slightly altered when the decadal linear trend is removed from the original DMTS. Therefore, it is shown that seasonal oscillation is a significant component of daily maximum temperature evolution and may provide a basis for predicting daily maximum temperatures. Seasonal oscillation is also significant for guiding general weather predictions, as well as seasonal weather predictions.     

Electrospray mass spectrometry and tandem mass spectrometry of bimetallic oxovanadium complexes

A series of six bimetallic oxovanadium complexes (1-6; only one was purified) were investigated by electrospray quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-QTOF-MS/MS) in negative-ion mode. Radical molecular anions [M](.-) were observed in MS mode. Fragmentation patterns of [M](.-) were proposed, and elemental compositions of most of the product ions were confirmed on the basis of the high-resolution ESI-CID-MS/MS spectra. A complicated series of low-abundance product ions similar to electron impact (EI) ionization spectra indicated the radical character of the precursor ions. Fragment ions at m/z 214, 200, and 182 seem to be the characteristic ions of bimetallic oxovanadium complexes. These ions implied the presence of a V-O-V bridge bond, which might contribute to stabilization of the radical. To obtain more information for structural elucidation, three representative bimetallic oxovanadium complexes (1-3) were analyzed further by MS in positive-ion mode. Positive-ion ESI-MS produced adduct ions of [M + H](+), [M + Na](+), and [M + K](+). The fragmentation patterns of [M + Na](+) were different than those of radical molecular anions [M](.-). Relatively simple fragmentation occurred for [M + Na](+), possibly due to even-electron ion character. Negative-ion MS and MS/MS spectra of the hydrolysis product of Complex 1 supported these finding, in particular, the existence of a V-O-V bridge bond.     

Three new limonoids from Cipadessa cinerascens

Three new limonoids, cipadesins D--F (1--3), together with 8,15-dihydroxy-13E-labdane, beta-sitosterol and beta-daucosterol, were isolated from the leaves and bark of Cipadessa cinerascens. Their structures were elucidated by spectral evidence. X-Ray crystallographic analysis confirmed the structure of 1.     

ERA-Interim中的中国地区水分循环要素的时空演变特征分析

本文利用1979–2011年欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 的再分析资料 (ERA-Interim), 运用经验正交函数展开 (EOF) 和相似系数等方法, 对中国地区水分循环诸要素的时空特征进行了计算与分析. 研究结果表明: 在空间分布特征上, 蒸发量、纬向水汽通量和经向水汽通量均与大气可降水量的空间分布最相似, 大气可降水量和降水量均与蒸发量的空间分布最相似, 降水量与纬向水汽通量的相似系数略大于其与经向水汽通量的相似系数; 在时间演变上: 年降水量在1979–2002年间, 呈现非常显著的上升趋势; 在2002–2011 年间, 呈现显著的下降趋势. 年蒸发量在该两个时段的变化趋势与年降水量一致, 但均比年降水量明显; 年蒸发量在1979–2011年间呈现非常显著的上升趋势, 其年际变化明显小于年降水量. 可降水量和水汽通量散度在1979–2011年间的长期变化趋势不明显, 但可降水量的年际变化呈阶段式增大, 水汽通量的年际变化一直较大. 纬向与经向水汽通量均存在2–3年为周期的年际变化; 此外, 纬向水汽通量在1979–2011年间还存在显著的下降趋势. 春、秋季的水汽通量都存在显著下降的长期变化趋势, 夏、冬季的长期变化趋势不明显. 四季都存在2–3年为周期的年际变化. 此外, 夏季还存在明显的年代际转折. 关键词： 水分循环 时空特征 EOF 相似系数     

高迁移率InGaAs/InP量子阱中的有效g因子

利用化学束外延法制备了高迁移率的In_0.53Ga_0.47As/InP量子阱样品. 在样品的低温磁输运测试中, 观察到纵向磁阻的Shubnikov-de Hass (SdH) 振荡和零场自旋分裂引起的拍频. 本文提出一种解析的方法, 即通过同时拟合不同倾斜磁场下SdH振荡的傅里叶变换谱, 得到有效g因子的大小.     

2009年11月冰冻雨雪事件10—30d延伸期稳定分量提取及分析

针对2009年11月冰冻雨雪事件,通过经验正交函数分解等方法提取10—30 d稳定分量,并第一次运用计算贡献率和相似系数判定等手段把稳定分量进一步客观地分离成气候态稳定分量和异常型稳定分量.将气候态稳定分量与低通滤波分量合成气候背景场.研究发现:气候背景场环流形势持续时间较长,随时间变化缓慢,主要提供了事件发生的气候背景,指示大尺度环流调配置和调整;气候背景场空间活动范围较大,能较好地刻画永久半永久性大气活动中心变化情况,且在垂直各层有稳定一致的配置关系;异常型稳定分量重点体现了环流相对异常特征,与2009年11月冰冻雨雪事件有较好的对应关系.在气候背景场提供确定的环流大背景下,异常型稳定分量表征了对应天气系统的相对强弱变化.     

Characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of daily extreme temperature events in China: Minimum temperature records in different climate states against the background of the most probable temperature

Based on the skewed function,the most probable temperature is defined and the spatiotemporal distributions of the frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events in different climate states over China are investigated,where the climate states are referred to as State I,State II and State III,i.e.,the daily minimum temperature records of 1961-1990,1971-2000,and 1981-2009.The results show that in space the frequency of high temperature events in summer decreases clearly in the lower and middle reaches of the Yellow River in State I and that low temperature events decrease in northern China in State II.In the present state,the frequency of high temperature events increases significantly in most areas over China except the north east,while the frequency of low temperature events decreases mainly in north China and the regions between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River.The distributions of frequencies and strengths of extreme temperature events are consistent in space.The analysis of time evolution of extreme events shows that the occurrence of high temperature events become higher with the change in state,while that of low temperature events decreases.High temperature events are becoming stronger as well and deserve to be paid special attention.     

气候变化中高温破纪录事件的蒙特卡罗模拟研究

采用蒙特卡罗方法,分析了南京市1961年—2000年40?a日观测温度资料中的高温破纪录事件的统计规律,并比较了20世纪全球变暖和南京市近40年来区域变暖背景对其统计规律的影响. 理论分析和蒙特卡罗模拟结果均表明：近40年来南京市第ｋ个高温破纪录事件的最概然发生强度与k（k=1,2,3,\:）呈线性增长,而年发生高温破纪录事件的频率随时间t呈1/（t+1）的衰减趋势,且平均温度高的年份,发生高温破纪录事件的概率较大,反之,概率较小. 结果还表明：20世纪的全球变暖速率（ｖ=0.006?℃/a）和南京市区域的变暖速率（ｖ=0.017?℃/a）在短期内还不至于引起高温破纪录事件的发生强度和发生频率有明显变化,但持续变暖最终将会使年发生高温破纪录事件的频率渐渐地收敛于一个常数,近似等于变暖速率的值. 此外,还研究了日温度之间的自相关和方差变化对高温破纪录事件的影响,研究发现异方差和弱的自相关对高温破纪录事件的发生强度和概率的影响基本可以忽略. 关键词： 高温破纪录事件 蒙特卡罗模拟 全球变暖     

中国近58年温度极端事件的区域特征及其与气候突变的联系

运用动力学自相关因子指数Q分析中国温度的时空变化特征,得到8个不同的动力学温度变化特征区：准噶尔区、 东北区、西北区、西南东区、西南西区、华北区、东南区和中南区.初步讨论了这些特征区的年均温度变化和极端温度年出现天数及其与温度突变的关系,以及不同温度段对中国近58年增暖的可能影响.研究结果表明：（1）准噶尔区、东北区等7个温度特征区近58年的年均温和极端高温的年出现天数均表现为增长趋势,极端低温天数则为降低趋势,极端高温的变化与温度增暖呈正相关,与极端低温则呈负相关.同时,北方涛动、南方涛动 关键词： Q指数')" href="#">Q指数 温度段 极端温度 温度突变