Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Study of the charge-exchange reactions\pi ^ - p \to (\pi ^0 ,\eta ,\eta \prime )n at 63 GeV

Muon electron pairs were detected in an Al multiplate spark chamber, exposed to a neutrino beam from the CERN PS. The leptons were not accompanied by other particles, except occasionally by protons. The background came mainly from muon associated π⁰ production, with one decay gamma lost. It was determined empirically, together with the small contribution from υ _e reactions. For electron energies above 2 GeV the background is 5.7±1.5 events, whereas 18 (μe)-candidates have been observed. Hence the effect is established, with a rate of about 10^?4 as compared to the muonic reactions above 3 GeV. Charm creation as the origin of this (μe)-production process is excluded; heavy neutral lepton production does not fit the kinematics observed. Instead the events are compatible with the two-body decay of an object with variable invariant mass of order 1 GeV, possibly resulting from axion interactions.     

A comparison of steady-state evoked potentials to modulated tones in awake and sleeping humans.

Steady-state evoked potential responses were measured to binaural amplitude-modulated (AM) and combined amplitude- and frequency-modulated (AM/FM) tones. For awake subjects, AM/FM tones produced larger amplitude responses than did AM tones. Awake and sleeping responses to 30-dB HL AM/FM tones were compared. Response amplitudes were lower during sleep and the extent to which they differed from awake amplitudes was dependent on both carrier and modulation frequencies. Background EEG noise at the stimulus modulation frequency was also reduced during sleep and varied with modulation frequency. A detection efficiency function was used to indicate the modulation frequencies likely to be most suitable for electrical estimation of behavioral threshold. In awake subjects, for all carrier frequencies tested, detection efficiency was highest at a modulation frequency of 45 Hz. In sleeping subjects, the modulation frequency regions of highest efficiency varied with carrier frequency. For carrier frequencies of 250 Hz, 500 Hz, and 1 kHz, the highest efficiencies were found in two modulation frequency regions centered on 45 and 90 Hz. For 2 and 4 kHz, the highest efficiencies were at modulation frequencies above 70 Hz. Sleep stage affected both response amplitude and background EEG noise in a manner that depended on modulation frequency. The results of this study suggest that, for sleeping subjects, modulation frequencies above 70 Hz may be best when using steady-state potentials for hearing threshold estimation.     

Distribution of magnetization in an easy-plane ferromagnet

Physics and Mathematics Division with Computational Center of the Bashkir Branch of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 80, No. 3, pp. 470–473, September, 1989.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Electrochemical Recovery of Silver from Lead Alloys in Chloride Melts

Electrochemical separation of lead-silver alloys into the constituents by thin-layer electrolysis in molten electrolytes, with bismuth as metal separator, is studied. It is proposed to determine the extent of component recovery by potentiometry.     

An unstructured mesh finite volume method for modelling saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers

In this paper, a two-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh method (FVUM) based on a triangular background interpolation mesh is developed for analysing the evolution of the saltwater intrusion into single and multiple coastal aquifer systems. The model formulation consists of a ground-water flow equation and a salt transport equation. These coupled and non-linear partial differential equations are transformed by FVUM into a system of differential/algebraic equations, which is solved using backward differentiation formulas of order one through five. Simulation results are compared with previously published solutions where good agreement is observed.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.