Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

共沉淀法制备Y_2O_2S∶Eu~(3+),Mg~(2+),Ti~(4+)红色长余辉材料

用共沉淀法制备了Y2O2S∶Eu3 ,Mg2 ,Ti4 红色长余辉材料。测量了材料的电子显微形貌、晶体结构和发射光谱。通过与固相法制备的Y2O2S∶Eu3 ,Mg2 ,Ti4 长余辉材料比较,发现两种方法都可以制备粒度基本相同的纯相Y2O2S基质晶体,但共沉淀法样品的颗粒结构更松散。研究了Eu3 浓度对两种方法制备样品的谱线发射强度的影响,通过比较共沉淀法和高温固相法制备的样品中Eu3 的5D1→7F3较高能级跃迁的587.6 nm谱线强度随Eu3 浓度的变化,发现共沉淀法更有利于Eu3 均匀进入Y2O2S基质晶格而形成有效的发光中心。     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

镧系金属一氢化物有效芯势研究

采用Cundari和Stevens等推导的有效芯势对镧系金属一氢化物进行了理论计算，以探讨镧系金属元素与氢的相互作用。结果表明所有镧系金属一氢化物基态时理论上是稳定的，最稳定的是SmH,最不稳定的是DyH;键长计算结果显示，基态时镧系金属一招兵买马花物有独立王国 收缩现象发生；红外振动频率理论计算值与实验结果一致；成键轨道中，金属原子轨道的贡献主要是s轨道和d轨道：从CeH至ErH(GdH)例外）随着外层电子的增加s轨道成分逐渐增大d轨道成分逐渐减小；从TmH和LuH（包括GdH)，成键轨道中金属原子轨道的贡献主要是d轨道，约为90％；约大多数镧系金属一氧化物的成键轨道中金属原子轨道f成分小于1％。     

The polar ionosphere at Zhongshan station on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared

The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11, 1999: the solar wind plasma density and dynamic pressure were less than 1cm⁻³ and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F₂ layer spread very little. The critical frequency of day-side F₂ layer, f₀F₂, was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f₀F₂ appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral E_s appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral E_s and weak Pc3 pulsation.

     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Analysis of Aperture Field of Circular Groove Guide Horn Antenna by Using FD-TD Method

This paper presents an instance of using FD-TD method to analyze the aperture field of circular groove guide horn antenna. This process is one part of a hybrid method to solve the radiation field of aperture antenna. To verify the calculated aperture field the radiation pattern is computed from it and compared with the measured one. Good agreement is reached.     

磁控溅射ZnO薄膜生长的等离子体发射光谱研究

通过反应磁控溅射过程中的等离子体发射光谱，研究了制备ZnO薄膜的沉积温度、氧气流量比例R=O₂/(O₂+Ar)对Zn和O原子发射光谱的影响，并结合ZnO薄膜的结构和物理性能，探讨了沉积温度在ZnO薄膜生长中的作用.研究结果显示：当R≥0.75%时， Zn的溅射产额随R的增加基本呈线性下降规律.当R介于10%—50%时，氧含量的变化相对平缓，有利于ZnO薄膜生长的稳定性控制.Zn原子发射光谱强度随沉积温度的变化可以分为三个阶段.当沉积温度低于250℃时，发射光谱强 关键词： ZnO 薄膜生长 反应磁控溅射 等离子体发射光谱