Subagging for credit scoring models

The logistic regression framework has been for long time the most used statistical method when assessing customer credit risk. Recently, a more pragmatic approach has been adopted, where the first issue is credit risk prediction, instead of explanation. In this context, several classification techniques have been shown to perform well on credit scoring, such as support vector machines among others. While the investigation of better classifiers is an important research topic, the specific methodology chosen in real world applications has to deal with the challenges arising from the real world data collected in the industry. Such data are often highly unbalanced, part of the information can be missing and some common hypotheses, such as the i.i.d. one, can be violated. In this paper we present a case study based on a sample of IBM Italian customers, which presents all the challenges mentioned above. The main objective is to build and validate robust models, able to handle missing information, class unbalancedness and non-iid data points. We define a missing data imputation method and propose the use of an ensemble classification technique, subagging, particularly suitable for highly unbalanced data, such as credit scoring data. Both the imputation and subagging steps are embedded in a customized cross-validation loop, which handles dependencies between different credit requests. The methodology has been applied using several classifiers (kernel support vector machines, nearest neighbors, decision trees, Adaboost) and their subagged versions. The use of subagging improves the performance of the base classifier and we will show that subagging decision trees achieve better performance, still keeping the model simple and reasonably interpretable.     

Effective Dynamics for Bloch Electrons: Peierls Substitution and Beyond

We consider an electron moving in a periodic potential and subject to an additional slowly varying external electrostatic potential, (x), and vector potential A(x), with x ^d and 1. We prove that associated to an isolated family of Bloch bands there exists an almost invariant subspace of L ² ( ^d ) and an effective Hamiltonian governing the evolution inside this subspace to all orders in . To leading order the effective Hamiltonian is given through the Peierls substitution. We explicitly compute the first order correction. From a semiclassical analysis of this effective quantum Hamiltonian we establish the first order correction to the standard semiclassical model of solid state physics.     

Photophysical properties of the ReI and RuII complexes of a new C60-substituted bipyridine ligand

The rhenium(I) and ruthenium(II) complexes of a fullerene-substituted bipyridine ligand have been prepared. Electrochemical studies indicate that some ground state electronic interaction between the fullerene subunit and the metal-complexed moiety are present in the Re(I) but not the Ru(II) complex. The photophysical properties have been investigated by steady-state and time-resolved UV/Vis-NIR luminescence spectroscopy and nanosecond laser flash photolysis in CH2Cl2 solution, and compared to those of the corresponding model compounds. Excitation of the methanofullerene moiety in the dyads does not lead to excited state intercomponent interactions. Instead, excitation of the metal-complexed unit shows that the lowest triplet metal-to-ligand-charge-transfer excited state ((3)MLCT) centered on the Re(I)- or Ru(II)-type unit is quenched with a rate constant of about 2.5 x 10(8) s(-1). The quenching is attributed to an electron-transfer (ElT) process leading to the reduction of the carbon sphere, as determined by luminescence spectroscopy for the Ru(II) dyad. Experimental detection of electron transfer in the Re(I) dyad is prevented due to the unfavorable absorption of the metal-complexed moiety relative to the fullerene unit. However, it can be postulated on the basis of energetic/kinetic arguments and by comparison with the Ru(II)-type array. The primary ElT process is followed by charge-recombination to give the lowest-lying fullerene triplet excited state (3C60) with quantitative yield, as determined by sensitized singlet oxygen luminescence experiments. Direct (3)MLCT-->3C60 triplet-triplet energy-transfer (EnT) does not successfully compete with ElT since it is highly exoergonic and located in the Marcus inverted region. The quantum yield of singlet oxygen sensitization (Phi(delta)) of the Re(I)-based dyad is found to be lower (0.80) than for the corresponding Ru(II) derivative (1.0). This is likely to be the consequence of different conformational structures for the two dyads, rather than a different yield of 3C60 formation.     

Determination of a new calcium antagonist in human plasma by liquid extraction enrichment and HPLC with UV detection

Summary An HPLC method has been developed for the determination of SL 85.1016, a new calcium antagonist arylbenzylamide methylthioether derivative. SL 85.1016 and the internal standard, SL 87.0210, are extracted from alkaline human plasma withn-hexane and back extracted into 0.05 M phosphate buffer (pH 2.5; 0.2 ml). Acetonitrile (50 l) is added to the final aqueous extract in order to prevent absorption of the compounds of interest onto the walls of the glass tube; this solution then is partially processed by HPLC on a C₁₈ column with UV detection (254 nm). The determination limit of the method is 2 ng.ml^–1 of SL 85.1016 in human plasma; the response to the drug is linear in the range 2–200 ng.mg^–1.     

Phytochemistry and Biological Activities of Iris Species Growing in Iraqi Kurdistan and Phenolic Constituents of the Traditional Plant Iris postii

A dozen Iris species (Iridaceae) are considered traditional remedies in Kurdistan, especially for treating inflammations. Phytochemical studies are still scarce. The information reported in the literature about Iris species growing in Kurdistan has been summarized in the first part of this paper, although, except for Iris persica, investigations have been performed on vegetal samples collected in countries different from Kurdistan. In the second part of the work, we have investigated, for the first time, the contents of the methanolic extracts of Iris postii aerial parts and rhizomes that were collected in Kurdistan. Both extracts exhibited a significant dose-dependent free radical scavenging and total antioxidant activities, comparable to those of ascorbic acid. Medium-pressure liquid chromatographic separations of the two extracts afforded l-tryptophan, androsin, isovitexin, swertisin, and 2″-O-α-l-rhamnopyranosyl swertisin from the aerial parts, whereas ε-viniferin, trans-resveratrol 3,4′-O-di-β-d-glucopyranoside, and isotectorigenin were isolated from the rhizomes. This is the first finding of the last three metabolites from an Iris species. The various remarkable biological activities of isolated compounds scientifically sustain the traditional use of I. postii as a medicinal plant.     

Visible and near-infrared intense luminescence from water-soluble lanthanide [Tb(III), Eu(III), Sm(III), Dy(III), Pr(III), Ho(III), Yb(III), Nd(III), Er(III)] complexes

The synthesis of a new ligand (1) containing a single phenanthroline (phen) chromophore and a flexibly connected diethylenetriamine tetracarboxylic acid unit (DTTA) as a lanthanide (Ln) coordination site is reported [1 is 4-[(9-methyl-1,10-phenantrol-2-yl)methyl]-1,4,7-triazaheptane-1,1,7,7-tetraacetic acid]. From 1, an extended series of water-soluble Ln.1 complexes was obtained, where Ln is Eu(III), Tb(III), Gd(III), Sm(III), Dy(III), Pr(III), Ho(III), Yb(III), Nd(III), and Er(III). The stoichiometry for the association was found 1:1, with an association constant K(A) > or = 10(7) s(-1) as determined by employing luminescence spectroscopy. The luminescence and photophysical properties of the series of lanthanide complexes were investigated in both H2O and D2O solutions. High efficiencies for the sensitized emission, phi(se), in air-equilibrated water were observed for the Ln.1 complexes of Eu(III) and Tb(III) in the visible region (phi(se) = 0.24 and 0.15, respectively) and of Sm(III), Dy(III), Pr(III), Ho(III), Yb(III), Nd(III), and Er(III) in the vis and/or near-infrared region [phi(se) = 2.5 x 10(-3), 5 x 10(-4), 3 x 10(-5), 2 x 10(-5), 2 x 10(-4), 4 x 10(-5), and (in D2O) 4 x 10(-5), respectively]. For Eu.1 and Tb.1, luminescence data for water and deuterated water allowed us to estimate that no solvent molecules (q) are bound to the ion centers (q = 0). Luminescence quenching by oxygen was investigated in selected cases.     

Thermal and rheological behaviours of some random aromatic amino-ended polyethersulfone/polyetherethersulfone copolymers

The thermal and rheological characterizations of seven random, low molecular weight (M_n ≅ 9500 g mol⁻¹), H₂N-ended polyethersulfone/polyetherethersulfone (PES/PEES) copolymers, at various PES/PEES ratios, were performed. The glass transition temperatures (T_g) were determined by DSC. Degradations were carried out in a thermobalance, under flowing nitrogen, in dynamic heating conditions from 35 °C to 650 °C. The initial decomposition temperatures (T_i) and the half decomposition temperatures (T_1/2) were directly determined by TG curves, while the apparent activation energies of degradation (E_a) were obtained by the Kissinger method. In addition, the complex viscosities (η^∗) of the molten polymers were determined in experimental conditions of linear viscoelasticity. T_g, E_a and η^∗ values increased linearly with PES% content, while T_i and T_1/2 values showed opposite behaviour. In every case both PES and PEES homopolymers felt outside linearity. The results obtained are discussed and interpreted, and compared with those of corresponding Cl-ended copolymers previously studied.     

Manganese(III) Formate: A Three-Dimensional Framework That Traps Carbon Dioxide Molecules

Carbon dioxide, formic acid, and water molecules are trapped in the crystal lattice of manganese(III ) formate (see 1 ), which was obtained by reducing permanganate with formic acid. Each CO₂ guest molecule exhibits four C−H⋅⋅⋅O−C−O interactions with the three-dimensional host framework of Mn(HCOO)₃ units. Compound 1 undergoes an antiferromagnetic phase transition at 27 K.