Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.     

Complete ideals and singularities of space curves

We consider complete ideals supported on finite sequences of infinitely near points, in regular local rings with dimensions greater than two. We study properties of factorizations in Lipman special *-simple complete ideals. We relate it to a type of proximity, linear proximity, of the points, and give conditions in order to have unique factorization. Several examples are presented. Received: 2 February 2000 / in final form: 14 March 2001 / Published online: 18 January 2002     

CMS physics overview

The principal physics goals of the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment under construction at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN in Geneva are reviewed. Procedures to search for the Standard Model Higgs boson, supersymmetric Higgses and other supersymmetric particles are described.     

Can Millimeter Waves Generate Electroporation?

Analysis of the field distributions in a single biological cell under electromagnetic wave is given. With Debye approximation, the dielectric relaxation of each part of the cell, including the extracellular and cellular media, the cell membrane and the nuclear membrane, was taken into account. Making use of some typical parameters for a cell, the voltage across nuclear and cytoplasma membranes under electromagnetic waves are calculated up to millimeter wave frequency range. The calculated result indicates that it is unlikely to generate electroporation by present available millimeter wave sources.     

Two modifications of the least cost per period heuristic for dynamic lot-sizing

This paper proposes two constructive heuristics for the well-known single-level uncapacitated dynamic lot-sizing problem. The proposed heuristics, called net least period cost (nLPC) and nLPC(i), are developed by modifying the average period cost concept from Silver and Meal's heuristic, commonly known as least period cost (LPC). An improved tie-breaking stopping rule and a locally optimal decision rule are proposed in the second heuristic to enhance performance. We test the effectiveness of the proposed heuristics by using 20 benchmarking test problems frequently used in the literature. Furthermore, we perform a large-scale simulation study involving three factors, 50 experimental conditions, and 100?000 randomly generated problems to evaluate the proposed heuristics against LPC and six other well-known constructive heuristics in the literature. The simulation results show that both nLPC and nLPC(i) produce average holding and setup costs lower than or equal to those of LPC in every one of the 50 experimental conditions. The proposed heuristics also outperform each of the six other heuristics evaluated in all experimental conditions, without an increase in computational requirements. Lastly, considering that both nLPC and nLPC(i) are fairly simple for practitioners to understand and that lot-sizing heuristics have been commonly used in practice, there should be a very good chance for practical applications of the proposed heuristics.