A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Synthesis of methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside

A convenient method is proposed for the synthesis of all the individual methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside based on the partial methylation of 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside with dimethyl sulfate in an alkaline medium followed by preparative liquid column chromatography on silica gel of the resulting mixture of methyl ethers.     

The matrix equation AX-YB=C and related problems

The main result of the paper is a theorem, using which a new proof of Roth’s theorem is obtained, a new solvability criterion for the matrix equation AX-YB = C is proved, a formula for a particular solution of the latter is derived, and the least of the orders of square nonsingular matrices containing a given rectangular matrix as a submatrix is determined. Bibliography: 5 titles. __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 323, 2005, pp. 15–23.     

Analysis of packing factors of crystalline polymers in terms of the glass transition to melting temperature radio

An expression for the ratio of the glass transition temperature to the melting temperature, T _g/T _m, was derived with allowance for fluctuations of the packing factor in the amorphous state. This relationship made it possible to describe the actual range of variation in T _g/T _m depending on a change in the packing factor in the crystalline state k _{o, cr}. The proposed approach forms the basis for the method of determination of increments in the packing ratio k _{o, cr} and formulation of the principles of selection of experimental data for calculations. The glass transition temperatures in polyethylene depending on the type of unit cell were calculated.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

The energy conservation law for optical two-port devices

Optics and Spectroscopy - The relationship between the parameters of quadripoles (mirrors, for example) ensuring the fulfillment of the energy conservation law are considered. Apart from the...     

Temperature dependence of corundum roentgenoluminescence and thermoluminescence

Translated from Zhurnal Prikladnoi Spektroskopii, Vol. 54, No. 3, pp. 438–444, March, 1991.     

Investigation of the structure of a melt and molecular dynamics of ortho- and pyrophosphates by Raman spectroscopy

Translated from Zhurnal Prikladnoi Spektroskopii, Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 535–540, October, 1991.