On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Z′ mediated flavor changing neutral currents in B meson decays

We study the effects of an extra U(1)′ gauge boson with flavor changing couplings with fermion mass eigenstates on certain B meson decays that are sensitive to such new physics contributions. In particular, we examine to what extent the current data on B_d→φK and B_d→η′K decays may be explained in such models, concentrating on the example in which the flavor changing couplings are left-chiral. We find that within reasonable ranges of parameters, the Z′ contribution can readily account for the anomaly in S_φKS but is not sufficient to explain large branching ratio of B_d→η′K with the same parameter value. S_φKS and S_η′KS are seen to be the dominant observables that constrain the extra weak phase in the model.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

cos πρ theorems for δ-subharmonic functions

For ϕ a δ-subharmonic function, sharp results are obtained that connectA(r, ϕ), B(r, ϕ) andT(r, ϕ), whereA(r, ϕ)=inf_|z|=r ϕ(z),B(r, ϕ)=sup_|z|=r ϕ(z), andT(r, ϕ) is the Nevanlinna characteristics.     

Rapid DNA hybridization analysis using a PDMS microfluidic sensor and a molecular beacon.

A rapid DNA analysis has been developed based on a fluorescence intensity change of a molecular beacon in a PDMS microfluidic channel. Recently, we reported a new analytical method of DNA hybridization involving a PDMS microfluidic sensor using fluorescence energy transfer (FRET). However, there are some limitations in its application to real DNA samples because the target DNA must be labelled with a suitable fluorescent dye. To resolve this problem, we have developed a new DNA microfluidic sensor using a molecular beacon. By monitoring the change in the restored fluorescence intensity along the channel length, it is possible to rapidly detect any hybridization of the molecular beacon to the target DNA. In this case, the target DNA does not need to be labelled. Our experimental results demonstrate that this microfluidic sensor using a molecular beacon is a promising diagnostic tool for rapid DNA hybridization analysis.     

Investigations of low- and high-spin states of <Superscript>132</Superscript>La

The fusion evaporation reaction ¹²²Sn(¹⁴N, 4n)¹³²La was used to populate the high-spin states of ¹³²La at the beam energy of 60 MeV. A new band consisting of mostly E2 transitions has been discovered. This band has the interesting links to the ground state 2^- and the isomeric state 6^-. A new transition of energy 351 keV connecting the low-spin states of the positive-parity band based on the πh _11/2 ⊗ νh _11/2 particle configuration, has been found. This has played a very important role in resolving the existing ambiguities and inconsistencies in the spin assignment of the band head. Received: 12 August 2002 / Accepted: 18 March 2003 / Published online: 7 May 2003     

Numerical study of the effects of the rupture process of a secondary diaphragm in expansion tubes

The results of a numerical study are described in which the interactions of a primary shock wave with a secondary diaphragm in expansion tubes are taken into account. The developing wave pattern in the interacting process of the shock with a secondary diaphragm are visualized by many kinds of figures (e.g., the time-distance diagrams of the wave phenomena on the axis, the acoustic impedance contours, and the time histories of the pitot pressure on the axis), and the influences of the shape and rupture process of the diaphragm on the quality of the test gas are explored.     

An algorithm to locate perinatal facilities in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro

In order to reduce infant mortality in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro it is desired to encourage all mothers-to-be to attend the appropriate health care facilities. A 3-level hierarchical prenatal–neonatal health care system is described together with a basic model for optimising accessibility to facilities. A genetic algorithm to solve the basic model is developed and some numerical experience reported. Extensions to the basic model and planned future research are briefly indicated.     

Inversion of adjunction for non-degenerate hypersurfaces

 We prove a precise inversion of adjunction formula for the log variety (ℂ ^{d +1},X), where X is a non-degenerate hypersurface. As a corollary, the minimal log discrepancies of non-degenerate normal hypersurface singularities are bounded by dimension. Received: 17 September 2002 / Revised version: 22 November 2002 Published online: 14 February 2003 Current address: DPMMS, CMS, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WB, England. e-mail: f.ambro@dpmms.cam.ac.uk Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): Primary 14B05; Secondary 14M25, 52B20