Decision Making and Optimization in Changeable Spaces, a New Paradigm

This paper proposes a new decision making/optimization paradigm, the decision making/optimization in changeable spaces (DM/OCS). The unique feature of DM/OCS is that it incorporates human psychology and its dynamics as part of the decision making process and allows the restructuring of the decision parameters. DM/OCS is based on Habitual Domain theory, the decision parameters, the concept of competence set, and the mental operators 7-8-9 principles of deep knowledge. The covering and discovering processes are formulated as DM/OCS problems. Some illustrative examples of challenging problems that cannot be solved by traditional decision making/optimization techniques are formulated as DM/OCS problems and solved. In addition, some directions of research related to innovation dynamics, management, artificial intelligence, artificial and e-economics, scientific discovery, and knowledge extraction are provided in the conclusion.     

Understanding agent-based models of financial markets: A bottom–up approach based on order parameters and phase diagrams

We describe a bottom–up framework, based on the identification of appropriate order parameters and determination of phase diagrams, for understanding progressively refined agent-based models and simulations of financial markets. We illustrate this framework by starting with a deterministic toy model, whereby N$N$ independent traders buy and sell M$M$ stocks through an order book that acts as a clearing house. The price of a stock increases whenever it is bought and decreases whenever it is sold. Price changes are updated by the order book before the next transaction takes place. In this deterministic model, all traders based their buy decisions on a call utility function, and all their sell decisions on a put utility function. We then make the agent-based model more realistic, by either having a fraction _fb$f_b$ of traders buy a random stock on offer, or a fraction _fs$f_s$ of traders sell a random stock in their portfolio. Based on our simulations, we find that it is possible to identify useful order parameters from the steady-state price distributions of all three models. Using these order parameters as a guide, we find three phases: (i) the dead market; (ii) the boom market; and (iii) the jammed market in the phase diagram of the deterministic model. Comparing the phase diagrams of the stochastic models against that of the deterministic model, we realize that the primary effect of stochasticity is to eliminate the dead market phase.