Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Activity of microemulsion-based nanoparticles at the human bio-nano interface: concentration-dependent effects on thrombosis and hemolysis in whole blood

Background: Although microemulsion-based nanoparticles (MEs) may be useful for drug delivery or scavenging, these benefits must be balanced against potential nanotoxicological effects in biological tissue (bio-nano interface). We investigated the actions of assembled MEs and their individual components at the bio-nano interface of thrombosis and hemolysis in human blood. Methods: Oil-in-water MEs were synthesized using ethylbutyrate, sodium caprylate, and pluronic F-68 (ME4) or F-127 (ME6) in 0.9% NaCl_w/v. The effects of MEs or components on thrombosis were determined using thrombo-elastography, platelet contractile force, clot elastic modulus, and platelet counting. For hemolysis, ME or components were incubated with erythrocytes, centrifuged, and washed for measurement of free hemoglobin by spectroscopy. Results and conclusions: The mean particle diameters (polydispersity index) for ME6 and ME4 were 23.6 ± 2.5 nm (0.362) and 14.0 ± 1.0 nm (0.008), respectively. MEs (0, 0.03, 0.3, 3 mM) markedly reduced the thromboelastograph maximal amplitude in a concentration-dependent manner (49.0 ± 4.2, 39.0 ± 5.6, 15.0 ± 8.7, 3.8 ± 1.3 mm, respectively), an effect highly correlated (r2 = 0.94) with similar changes caused by pluronic surfactants (48.7 ± 10.9, 30.7 ± 15.8, 20.0 ± 11.3, 2.0 ± 0.5) alone. Neither oil nor sodium caprylate alone affected the thromboelastograph. The clot contractile force was reduced by ME (27.3 ± 11.1–6.7 ± 3.4 kdynes/cm², P = 0.02, n = 5) whereas the platelet population not affected (175 ± 28–182 ± 23 10⁶/ml, P = 0.12, n = 6). This data suggests that MEs reduced platelet activity due to associated pluronic surfactants, but caused minimal changes in protein function necessary for coagulation. Although pharmacological concentrations of sodium caprylate caused hemolysis (EC₅₀ = 213 mM), MEs and pluronic surfactants did not disrupt erythrocytes. Knowledge of nanoparticle activity and potential associated nanotoxicity at this bio-nano interface enables rational ME design for in vivo applications.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Approximate Solution of the de la Vallée Poussin Problem for a Differential Equation of Neutral Type by the Projection-Iterative Method

We solve the de la Vallée Poussin problem for a functional-differential equation by the projection-iterative method. We construct an algorithm, establish conditions sufficient for the convergence of the method, and present a computational scheme.     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php